The US dollar index keeps rounding above the 103.60 historical support level. The buyers have already defended this level for three weeks, highlighting their interest in the greenback. Thus, buying USD looks less risky right now.
The USD may act on further actions by the Fed
The Federal Open Market Committee will publish the monetary policy decision and announce the interest rate on June 10, at 21:00 MT time.
Instruments to trade: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF
The FOMC stands for the Federal Open Market Committee. This is the department within the Federal Reserve of the United States, which is responsible for the monetary policy decisions. It releases the statement 8 times per year. The document contains the newest decision on the interest rate and policy measures. It also explains what economic conditions affected the decision. Based on the analysis of economic outlook, traders may get clues on future rate cuts.
We don’t expect the Federal Reserve to make any changes this time. However, the Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated several times in May that the regulator would implement more easing measures if needed. That is why we need to follow further news on the stimulus.
- If the Fed is optimistic, the USD will rise;
- If the Fed is pessimistic, the USD will fall.
On the H4 timeframe, the US dollar index has formed a bullish falling wedge. At the beginning of the trading session, the price is testing the upper border of this wedge. Thus, in case of a higher-than-expected Core PCE Price Index m/m, the US dollar will skyrocket against other currencies.
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This week may be the most important since the year started as the Fed assess the economic outlook and the US presents fresh NFP readings.
S&P Global, a private banking company, will release a monthly change in British Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on January 24, 11:30 GMT+2. The index is a leading indicator of economic health as businesses react quickly to market conditions, and purchasing managers hold the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy.
The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) m/m on January 12 at 15:30 GMT+2. The index measures a change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.