The British monthly GDP is announced on Friday at 09:00 MT time.
Top 4 trading opportunities of December 12
GBP: the room for surprises
It’s an election day in the UK. Traders will watch exit polls. The results will start arriving after 00:30 MT rime on Friday. The results of the vote will become clear by 4:00-5:00 MT time.
The latest opinion polls showed that the Conservative Party has a small majority. This means that the risk of a hung parliament is substantial and the fate of the GBP is hanging in the balance.
In the meantime, Boris Johnson, Prime Minister and the leader of the Conservatives, was in no mood to talk: he hid in an industrial fridge to avoid journalists’ questions.
EUR: mildly negative risks ahead of the ECB
The first meeting of Christine Lagarde as the President of the European Central Bank. Analysts at UBS expect that she will deal with the divided Government Council and won’t initiate any new policy action. Still, the Lagarde may try to make the news. She may comment on the policy tools available to the central bank. In addition, the ECB may lower growth and inflation forecasts for the euro area.
USD: it’s not so bad
Yesterday, the Federal Reserve kept its interest rate unchanged at a 1.5%-2% range during its meeting. What is more important is that the Fed’s dot plot indicated the federal funds rate at 1.6% in 2020, without any changes. You can read more about the outcome of the meeting here.
Trump’s meeting is ahead
Today, US President Donald Trump plans to meet the top trade advisers to discuss tariffs on China. The meeting will be crucial ahead of the tariffs deadline on December 15. According to an anonymous source, the US administration will raise tariffs on Sunday, but the final word will still belong to Trump. The fresh tariffs will increase uncertainties in the process of the US-China trade deal and be hurtful for the risk-weighted assets, such as the AUD, the NZD, and stocks.
What else happens in the market?
The main market tendency today is that the US dollar is rising against its major peers and riskier assets such as stocks and oil are plummeting.
The US unemployment claims are out on Thursday at 15:30 MT time.
The European Central Bank will publish the monetary policy statement with the interest rate decision on January 21, at 14:45 MT time.
Joe Biden is going to unveil a Covid-19 relief package of about $2 trillion. After this announcement, the 10-year Treasury yield rose, adding support for the USD.
The US dollar’s weakness offered a boost to emerging-market currencies and oil.