The US dollar index keeps rounding above the 103.60 historical support level. The buyers have already defended this level for three weeks, highlighting their interest in the greenback. Thus, buying USD looks less risky right now.
Trade ideas ahead of Fed
The market optimism waned ahead of the Fed meeting: stock indices dropped, gold and the USD rose.
Investors await comments from the Fed about inflation risks and increasing Treasury yields. The central bank should update its outlook for rates and the economy. This meeting may set new traction for the US dollar and stocks.
Gold is climbing up to close the second week in green. The yellow metal is driven up by prospects for higher inflation.
Oil prices dropped on concerns over weak demand from Europe. The Euro Area slowed down the vaccination campaign because of the possible side effects of AstraZeneca’s vaccine.
EUR/USD is getting closer to the 50-period moving average of 1.1915. The move above it will clear the way up to the upper trend line of 1.1935. On the flip side, the move down the intraday low of 1.1890 will press the pair down to the next support of 1.1870.
GBP/USD is at the resistance of 1.3900. if it manages to break it, the doors to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.3950 will be open. On the flip side, the move below the support of 1.3850 will drive the pound down to the key psychological mark of 1.3800.
USD/JPY hit the 200-week moving average of 109.50. The RSI indicator went slightly above the 70.00 level, indicating the price is too high. Thus, the pullback down is going to happen soon. If it drops below the closing price of the last week at 108.35, it may dip to the 100-week moving average of 107.20.
Gold is moving in an ascending channel. If it breaks through the 100-period moving average of $1740, it may rise to the next resistance of $1750. In the opposite scenario, the way down the recent lows of $1725 will drive gold to the 50-period moving average of $1712.
Follow the Fed statement at 20:00 MT time, big swings are awaited!
On the H4 timeframe, the US dollar index has formed a bullish falling wedge. At the beginning of the trading session, the price is testing the upper border of this wedge. Thus, in case of a higher-than-expected Core PCE Price Index m/m, the US dollar will skyrocket against other currencies.
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This week may be the most important since the year started as the Fed assess the economic outlook and the US presents fresh NFP readings.
S&P Global, a private banking company, will release a monthly change in British Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on January 24, 11:30 GMT+2. The index is a leading indicator of economic health as businesses react quickly to market conditions, and purchasing managers hold the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy.
The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) m/m on January 12 at 15:30 GMT+2. The index measures a change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.