Market Outlook For February 21-25
Last week was full of surprises! The US dollar plunged despite a better-than-expected retail sales report…
Trade ideas ahead of Fed
Latest news
The market optimism waned ahead of the Fed meeting: stock indices dropped, gold and the USD rose.
Investors await comments from the Fed about inflation risks and increasing Treasury yields. The central bank should update its outlook for rates and the economy. This meeting may set new traction for the US dollar and stocks.
Gold is climbing up to close the second week in green. The yellow metal is driven up by prospects for higher inflation.
Oil prices dropped on concerns over weak demand from Europe. The Euro Area slowed down the vaccination campaign because of the possible side effects of AstraZeneca’s vaccine.
Technical analysis
EUR/USD is getting closer to the 50-period moving average of 1.1915. The move above it will clear the way up to the upper trend line of 1.1935. On the flip side, the move down the intraday low of 1.1890 will press the pair down to the next support of 1.1870.
GBP/USD is at the resistance of 1.3900. if it manages to break it, the doors to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.3950 will be open. On the flip side, the move below the support of 1.3850 will drive the pound down to the key psychological mark of 1.3800.
USD/JPY hit the 200-week moving average of 109.50. The RSI indicator went slightly above the 70.00 level, indicating the price is too high. Thus, the pullback down is going to happen soon. If it drops below the closing price of the last week at 108.35, it may dip to the 100-week moving average of 107.20.
Gold is moving in an ascending channel. If it breaks through the 100-period moving average of $1740, it may rise to the next resistance of $1750. In the opposite scenario, the way down the recent lows of $1725 will drive gold to the 50-period moving average of $1712.
Follow the Fed statement at 20:00 MT time, big swings are awaited!
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Latest news
What’s New with Australian Unemployment Rate?
The Australian Bureau of Statistics will announce the updated Unemployment Rate and Employment Change data on Thursday, May 19, at 04:30 MT.
Can the UK CPI surprise?
The UK Office for National Statistics will publish Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Wednesday, May 18, at 09:00 MT.
The US Retail Sales Update
The US Census Bureau will announce Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales on Tuesday, May 17 at 15:30 MT.
