The United States will release the weekly Unemployment Claims on October 21, at 15:30 MT time (GMT+3).
Trade Ideas June 28 – July 2
The main events of the week are Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and the OPEC meeting. NFP is one of the most impactful indicators, that’s why it usually grabs a lot of attention of traders. This time, the focus will be even bigger as the Fed will base its further policy decision on employment. OPEC+ meeting will decide whether to hike oil output further or not.
After Fed’s hawkish decision in June, banks have started making bullish forecasts on the US dollar. Further hints at Fed’s tapering (cutting bond buys) in coming months will lift the US dollar. The better-than-expected NFP may push EUR/USD to early-April lows at 1.8000. The worse-than-expected NFP may drive the pair to 1.2000.
USD/CAD jumped on the Fed hawkishness. However, the Bank of Canada has already tightened the policy, that’s why the CAD is better protected from unexpected Fed policy actions than other currencies. Besides, the Canadian dollar should gain on rising oil prices. The majority of the correction in USD/CAD is over, that’s why USD/CAD may drop to the 50-day moving average of 1.2200.
XBR/USD (Brent crude oil) has hit the record high of $75 a barrel. The increasing demand for crude oil is likely to support the oil rally further to the psychological mark of $80 a barrel. On Thursday, OPEC+ members have to announce their decision on supply increases and give an outlook for the oil market.
IBM is a multinational technology company. Its hybrid cloud software gives the company a boost. The Q1 earnings report revealed that its cloud revenue grew 21% year over year. Since the company is trading at the local lows, it has a high potential to grow.
The Fed is ready to start tapering in November. Since the markets were expecting this and it wasn’t a surprise, the USD slumped allowing risk-on currencies and gold to rally up.
US Retail Sales will be out on October 15 at 15:30 MetaTrader time (GMT+3).
Last week was full of surprises! Stock indices have shown significant growth…
The US dollar is heading to close the seventh day in the red as it remains under selling pressure. The US data at 15:30 GMT+3 (jobless claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index) may support the greenback if it's strong.
Canada will publish the Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales on October 22, at 15:30 MT time (GMT+3).