The US dollar index keeps rounding above the 103.60 historical support level. The buyers have already defended this level for three weeks, highlighting their interest in the greenback. Thus, buying USD looks less risky right now.
Trump, Davos, USA
“Undeniable, unprecedented and unmatched”
A short while ago the US President Donald Trump finished his speech at Davos, where Switzerland is hosting the 50th World Economic Forum. It would be an understatement to describe it as highly positive and convincing of American successes during his presidency. Let’s break it down into major pivot points.
“Never before my presidency”
While the American president is attending the forum in Switzerland, the impeachment trial is underway in Washington. Contrasted by such a shady background tone, the speech of Mr. Trump appears even more compelling, confident and high-spirited. In other words, much like a pre-election speech. In fact, it is hard to find a better stage for such a public performance than the one in Davos. Melting down multi-digit numbers of his presidency achievements with superlative adjectives, Donald Trump clearly addressed the international audience as much as the domestic one, keeping in view the coming election in November 2020.
“The American dream is back: bigger, better and stronger than before”
It is hard to name a social group that Mr. Trump would not mention, cherish and reward in his speech. For the female part of the society, the US president announced that women now comprise a majority in the working class – for the first time in American history. For the African-Americans, he claimed saving the Historically Black Colleges and Universities. For the Hispanic-Americans, he cited the highest ratios of involvement in country’s labor force. “What about the rest of the people, who just work and do not belong to any special social denomination”, you would ask? No problem: for the “ordinary people”, Donald Trump provided the largest tax cuts in history, an “unthinkable” pace of wage growth and “worker first” prioritization in country’s internal affairs. That’s not to mention the employment rates at their minimum over the last 50 years.
“Despite the Fed”
Donald Trump did not lose the chance to poke the Fed’s monetary policy. He put the economic booming taking place in the US in opposition to the US Federal Reserve “rising the rates too fast and lowering them too slowly”. That gives more weight to the interest rate announcement and the monetary report coming on Wednesday next week: Fed Chair Jerome Powell has to bring something to the table in his speech to address the position of Mr. Trump.
“190 federal judges”
Internally, it appears that Donald Trump sees the US ultimately as more unified and well incorporated in the federal structure. At least, from the legal point of view. That fits well into his broader view of domestic development plans. Generally, such a direction would be called centralization, but to stay away from possible negative connotations, we could call it a new version of Federalization.
“Deregulations kicking in”
In foreign affairs, Donald Trump mentioned striking strong deals in the international stage and taking a direction of global deregulation, de-tarification, and economic freedom. For all parties, of course. Instead of a dysfunctional NAFTA, he established USMCA (US-Mexico-Canada) endorsed by all sectors from agriculture to manufacturing. Instead of “China’s predatory practices” in trade, he has now a promising trade agreement beneficial for both countries. All in all, Donald Trump claimed not less than a trade reform for the US as much as for the global setting. As a result, he reported 25% of all foreign investments in the world coming to the United States and making the stock market soar by more than 50% during his administration. In the meantime, more deals are coming with Japan, South Korea and especially with the UK. The latter gives an interesting detail to the Brexit story, conceptually replacing the aging and disintegrating EU with the strong and thriving US by the side of Great Britain.
“Number one energy producer”
Donald Trump did not hesitate to praise the achievements of the American energy sector. He said, now the US is an absolute prime producer of oil and gas in the world, hence completely self-sufficient (remember the US-Iran conflict two weeks ago). More so, he advised Europe to no longer be dependent on “unfriendly energy suppliers” (we leave it to you to guess who that may be). That should put more spokes in OPEC’s wheels anyways, making Mohammed Barkindo reconsider if he still sees brighter spots in the cartel’s future.
Gretha Thunberg may be happy
And finally, Donald Trump touched the climate change and addressed all those who predict natural catastrophes because of the merciless abuse of Earth resources. Not going into details, he announced a 1-trillion-trees initiative in the US. Also, he informed that clean coal and next-generation nuclear power structures are used as domestic energy base in the States. American air and water were reported as the cleanest in the world.
It’s hard to add anything else to these inspirational lines. “Vote for Trump” would be too obvious. “Go west” is too old-style. Anyways, let’s see how long these statements will survive. At least, if they survive through November 2020. Read the news, stay updated and trade with FBS.
On the H4 timeframe, the US dollar index has formed a bullish falling wedge. At the beginning of the trading session, the price is testing the upper border of this wedge. Thus, in case of a higher-than-expected Core PCE Price Index m/m, the US dollar will skyrocket against other currencies.
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