Market Outlook For February 21-25
Last week was full of surprises! The US dollar plunged despite a better-than-expected retail sales report…
Trump's soon recovery improved market sentiment
The market sentiment has improved due to the possibility of Trump’s soon recovery. Doctors reported that the US president’s health is improving. As a result, safe-haven assets dipped, while stocks and riskier currencies got a boost.
Fundamentals
- As for the fiscal stimulus, US officials claimed that the deal is going to be reached soon, despite some disagreements over the sum. Republicans argue for 1.5 trillion dollars, while Democrats insist on 2.2 trillion.
- On Friday, NFP came out and showed that only 661 000 people have found jobs in September, while 900 000 were expected. Average hourly earnings turned out worse than estimates as well. However, the market reaction was weaker than usual as it was partly offset by Trump’s announcement of being positively tested on Covid-19.
- Speaking about coronavirus, new virus cases have considerably risen in Europe. Some countries have even imposed fresh lockdowns.
- All attention to PMI reports from Europe and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI today as they will be the main market drivers.
Technical tips
Let’s look at the charts. EUR/USD plummeted on Friday amid the risk-off mood, but today the pair has started recovering its losses due to the upbeat comments over Trump’s health. EUR/USD has been trading in a descending channel since the beginning of September. The intersection of the upper line of the channel and the high of September 21 at 1.1770 has created a strong barrier for the pair. However, if it manages to cross it, the way up to the 200-day moving average at 1.1800 will be open. On the flip side, the move below the 50-day moving average at 1.1690 will drive the price lower to the next support of 1.1615.
S&P 500 is fluctuating between 3 300 and 3 390. The escape of this range will define further movement. If it goes above the top of 3 390 at the 200-period moving average, it will rise to 3 420. Otherwise, if it drops below the key support of 3 330, it will plummet to the bottom of its range at 3 300. Remember that you can use pending orders not to wait for the breakouts, such as Buy Stop and Sell Stop.
Gold has started the week on the back foot. The move below the 50-period moving average will drive the price lower to September’s dips of $1 850. In the opposite scenario, if it jumps above the key psychological mark of $1 900, the doors towards $1 920 will be open, but it’s unlikely to move further up as it is constrained by the two-months trendline.
The British pound has gained on optimism over soon Brexit agreement as the EU and the UK are showing interest in negotiating further. The sooner they reach the deal – the better for the pound. The surge above the key resistance of 1.3000 will drive the price to a high of early August of 1.3150. On the flip side, the move below the 200-day moving average of 1.2720 will push the pair lower to the next support of 1.2550.
All eyes on PMI reports from Europe and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI at 17:00 MT time.
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Latest news
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The Australian Bureau of Statistics will announce the updated Unemployment Rate and Employment Change data on Thursday, May 19, at 04:30 MT.
Can the UK CPI surprise?
The UK Office for National Statistics will publish Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Wednesday, May 18, at 09:00 MT.
The US Retail Sales Update
The US Census Bureau will announce Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales on Tuesday, May 17 at 15:30 MT.
