TRY: no happiness on gas discovery

What?

This Friday, the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced the biggest natural gas discovery Turkey ever had. The gas field was found in the Black Sea.

So what?

Fundamentally, that’s very good news for Turkey. With this discovery – and with the successful development of the gas field - it would no longer need to rely on Russia, Iran, or Iraq in providing its’ economy with such a key energy source like gas. But…

But what?

The field resulted to be less than expected. So the impact of this news is not as strategic as it was expected. Rather, tactical. However, it does give Turkey another leverage at hand, especially in view of its’ rally to become a primary regional power and beyond.

Then what?

The TRY initially took over the USD, probably hoping for greater news – greater both tactically and geographically. USD/TRY dropped below 7.20. Afterwards, however, it reversed all the gains getting back above 7.30.

Currently, USD/TRY is at strategic highs, and no gas field exploration seems to reverse the trend in the long run. 7.40 is a very viable target for the mid-term horizon.

technical analysis

fundamental analysis

try

usd

FBS Analyst Team

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