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TRY: no happiness on gas discovery
This Friday, the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced the biggest natural gas discovery Turkey ever had. The gas field was found in the Black Sea.
Fundamentally, that’s very good news for Turkey. With this discovery – and with the successful development of the gas field - it would no longer need to rely on Russia, Iran, or Iraq in providing its’ economy with such a key energy source like gas. But…
The field resulted to be less than expected. So the impact of this news is not as strategic as it was expected. Rather, tactical. However, it does give Turkey another leverage at hand, especially in view of its’ rally to become a primary regional power and beyond.
The TRY initially took over the USD, probably hoping for greater news – greater both tactically and geographically. USD/TRY dropped below 7.20. Afterwards, however, it reversed all the gains getting back above 7.30.
Currently, USD/TRY is at strategic highs, and no gas field exploration seems to reverse the trend in the long run. 7.40 is a very viable target for the mid-term horizon.
This week may be the most important since the year started as the Fed assess the economic outlook and the US presents fresh NFP readings.
S&P Global, a private banking company, will release a monthly change in British Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on January 24, 11:30 GMT+2. The index is a leading indicator of economic health as businesses react quickly to market conditions, and purchasing managers hold the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy.
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