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| American CPI and retail sales figures will come out at 15:30 MT time on January 12. |
| US Federal Reserve said in December that it expected to raise interest rates 3 times in 2018. Whether the Fed will be able to stick to this plan will depend, to a large extent, on US CPI figures. CPI stands for consumer price index. Headline CPI firmed, as expected, by 0.4% in November helped by higher energy prices. However, core CPI, which doesn’t contain food and energy prices, added only 0.1% and came below the forecast. As a result, to buy the USD on the release this time we will need good increases in both inflation indexes. Otherwise, the greenback will decline. |
| Retail sales reading will come out simultaneously with inflation. We will see how many purchases Americans made before Christmas. This is an important indicator of the US economic health. |
The US dollar index keeps rounding above the 103.60 historical support level. The buyers have already defended this level for three weeks, highlighting their interest in the greenback. Thus, buying USD looks less risky right now.
On the H4 timeframe, the US dollar index has formed a bullish falling wedge. At the beginning of the trading session, the price is testing the upper border of this wedge. Thus, in case of a higher-than-expected Core PCE Price Index m/m, the US dollar will skyrocket against other currencies.
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This week may be the most important since the year started as the Fed assess the economic outlook and the US presents fresh NFP readings.
S&P Global, a private banking company, will release a monthly change in British Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on January 24, 11:30 GMT+2. The index is a leading indicator of economic health as businesses react quickly to market conditions, and purchasing managers hold the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy.
The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) m/m on January 12 at 15:30 GMT+2. The index measures a change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.
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