US ELECTION: markets before the election day 2

US ELECTION: markets before the election day 2

The scores

As of 14:00 UTC this Wednesday, November 4, Joe Biden is slightly ahead of Donald Trump in the overall view. A lot of states still have to finish the counting and officials comment that it may not be earlier than Thursday or even Friday when we have data accurate and complete enough to have the winner. Waiting it is then.


Source: Bloomberg

The market

In the meantime, the USD is going through major turbulence. After a heavy gain it made against the EUR with EUR/USD dropping from 1.1770 to 1.1610, it gave in to weakness again. Currently, EUR/USD is following an upwards trajectory of similar velocity to the one it had yesterday on the way to 1.1700. Watch this level now - it will be key to detemine whether bulls will keep pushing or not.

USD/JPY shows the picture of a similarly heavy plunge of the USD: the pair left the areas below 105.00 and went down to 104.50. Very likely, it will be aiming at the range of 104.35-104.45: crossing the 200-MA will confirm that. 

Gold keeps losing value. Currently, it trades right below $1 890. This is zone is the area of local lows so don't be surprised if the price bounces upwards - just out of sheer volatility and nervousness of the election.


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USD Holds the Line
USD Holds the Line

The US dollar index keeps rounding above the 103.60 historical support level. The buyers have already defended this level for three weeks, highlighting their interest in the greenback. Thus, buying USD looks less risky right now. 

US Dollar Prepares for the Pump
US Dollar Prepares for the Pump

On the H4 timeframe, the US dollar index has formed a bullish falling wedge. At the beginning of the trading session, the price is testing the upper border of this wedge. Thus, in case of a higher-than-expected Core PCE Price Index m/m, the US dollar will skyrocket against other currencies. 

Latest news

Increased Volatility is Coming
Increased Volatility is Coming

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will make a statement and release a Cash Rate on February 7, 05:30 GMT+2. It's among the primary tools the RBA uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy.

Market Crash Incoming?
Market Crash Incoming?

This week may be the most important since the year started as the Fed assess the economic outlook and the US presents fresh NFP readings.

What Currency Will Overperform?
What Currency Will Overperform?

S&P Global, a private banking company, will release a monthly change in British Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on January 24, 11:30 GMT+2. The index is a leading indicator of economic health as businesses react quickly to market conditions, and purchasing managers hold the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy.

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