Today, two events will shake the US dollar. First, at 16:45 GMT+2, Markit, a statistical company, will release the US Flash Services PMI. Moreover, at 21:00 GMT+2, the Federal Reserve will release its meeting minutes.
US inflation today will hugely impact USD and gold
- The day has started with the better-than-expected GDP report from the UK: -1.5% vs the forecast of -1.6%. The easing of political risks and the gradual UK reopening should push the GBP further up. EUR/GBP is likely to drop to the 0.85 level in the coming weeks and GBP/USD should rally up further after some pause.
- The main focus of traders will be on US inflation at 15:30 GMT+3. The USD has paused a long falling caused by the poor NFP figures. Analysts expect the huge spike of the US inflation, which should weigh on the USD because of the Fed's lack of response to rising price pressure.
- Electronic Arts has revealed strong earnings and revenue yesterday after the market closed. Thus, we might expect EA to climb today.
- Alibaba and Disney will publish their earnings results tomorrow at 14:30 GMT+3 and 23:30 GMT+3.
EUR/USD is trading sideways. The upper trend line of the channel has transformed from the resistance to the support level for the pair. If it breaks the recent high of 1.2175, the way up to the high of February 25 at 1.2250 will be open. However, if it drops below 1.2110, it may fall to the 100-day moving average of 1.2050.
Nasdaq (US 100) dropped and approached the lower trend line near 13,000. It’s unlikely to cross this support level as it has failed to do so several times this and last year. Since it’s trading inside the ascending channel since August 2020, we might expect the tech stock index to keep moving up. If it breaks above the 50-day moving average of 13,400, the way up to the recent high of 13,750 will be open and then after some time to 14,000. Such broad indices as Nasdaq or S&P 500 always go up in the long term.
The decisive moment for gold is on the chart! On the weekly chart, there is a 50-week moving average just above the current price that stops gold from further rising. On the daily chart, there are resistance levels at the 200-day moving average and the upper trend line at $1850. If it finally manages to break them, the way up to $1875 will be open. Gold is viewed as a hedge against inflation, that’s why if inflation hikes today, the metal may advance. Just in case, be aware of support levels at the recent lows of $1825 and $1813.
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