The US dollar index keeps rounding above the 103.60 historical support level. The buyers have already defended this level for three weeks, highlighting their interest in the greenback. Thus, buying USD looks less risky right now.
US Inflation: Will It Skyrocket Further?
What will happen?
The United States will publish a headline and core inflation rate on July 13, at 15:30 MT time. These two indicators show the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers last month. The core type excludes volatile prices for food and fuel. Last time, the release greatly outperformed the forecast with 0.7% (vs. 0.5% expected). Given the fact that the inflation rate is moving higher than the Fed’s target of 2%, the release will attract the attention of traders.
How to trade on the US Headline and Core Inflation Rate?
If you want to trade on the inflation data, follow the economic calendar, compare the release with the forecasts and place an order afterward.
- If the actual figures are higher than the forecasts, the USD will rise;
- Alternatively, the USD will weaken.
Instruments to trade: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY
On the H4 timeframe, the US dollar index has formed a bullish falling wedge. At the beginning of the trading session, the price is testing the upper border of this wedge. Thus, in case of a higher-than-expected Core PCE Price Index m/m, the US dollar will skyrocket against other currencies.
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This week may be the most important since the year started as the Fed assess the economic outlook and the US presents fresh NFP readings.
S&P Global, a private banking company, will release a monthly change in British Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on January 24, 11:30 GMT+2. The index is a leading indicator of economic health as businesses react quickly to market conditions, and purchasing managers hold the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy.
The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) m/m on January 12 at 15:30 GMT+2. The index measures a change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.