Will There Be Any Changes in US Monetary Policy?
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US unemployment is soaring: a trigger for the USD
What?
Coronavirus and following shutdowns of American cities, including New York, the US financial center, cause a huge disruption of the American labor market. Companies operating in energy, travel, transportation, and services sectors are forced to fire their workers in order to cope with financial difficulties. Analysts predict especially tough times for Nevada and Florida: the states which are tourism-dependent.
What to watch?
While we are waiting for the complete monthly employment data on April 3, today we can already assess the number of people who lost their jobs last week. We are talking about the weekly unemployment claims – the earliest job data. The release is expected at 14:30 MT time. Generally, it shows the number of individuals who requested unemployment insurance within a week. According to analysts, the unemployment claims will soar to 1000K – the record level in history. For now, the highest level was in October 1982 with 695K claims recorded.
What does it mean for the currency market?
If the unemployment figures are that high, it will generate additional weakness for the USD. The currency has been already under pressure after the US Senate has approved the $2 trillion virus rescue plan. Looking at the H4 chart of EUR/USD, we can see that the pair has risen above the 50-period MA and is testing the 1.0950 level. The next resistance will lie at 1.0980 (200-period SMA) and 1.1. What if the unemployment claims are not so worrying (i.e. lower-than-expected)? In that scenario, we will be looking for a retest of 1.0890 level. The next support will be placed at 1.0830.
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