The US dollar index keeps rounding above the 103.60 historical support level. The buyers have already defended this level for three weeks, highlighting their interest in the greenback. Thus, buying USD looks less risky right now.
USD awaits the last important indicator of this year
The USA will publish Chicago PMI on December 30, at 16:45 MT time.
Instruments to trade: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD
Chicago is a big business center in the USA, therefore the data from there tend to reflect the country's overall economic trend. Just like a regular PMI, this one represents a survey of around 200 purchasing managers, which asks them to rate the level of business conditions. If the indicator is above 50, the situation is improving. On the other hand, the indicator below 50 signals worsening business conditions. As there are not so many events in the economic calendar these days, the release may result in volatility of the US dollar.
- If the indicator is higher than the forecasts, the USD will go up.
- If the indicator is lower than the forecasts, the USD will slump.
On the H4 timeframe, the US dollar index has formed a bullish falling wedge. At the beginning of the trading session, the price is testing the upper border of this wedge. Thus, in case of a higher-than-expected Core PCE Price Index m/m, the US dollar will skyrocket against other currencies.
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This week may be the most important since the year started as the Fed assess the economic outlook and the US presents fresh NFP readings.
S&P Global, a private banking company, will release a monthly change in British Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on January 24, 11:30 GMT+2. The index is a leading indicator of economic health as businesses react quickly to market conditions, and purchasing managers hold the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy.
The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) m/m on January 12 at 15:30 GMT+2. The index measures a change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.