The Fed is ready to start tapering in November. Since the markets were expecting this and it wasn’t a surprise, the USD slumped allowing risk-on currencies and gold to rally up.
USD: biggest weekly gain since October
- The US dollar is heading towards its largest weekly increase since October amid the risk-off market sentiment. Whereas, global stocks are having their worst weekly drop in nearly three months.
- According to Bloomberg, some strategists recommend investors to buy the dips ahead of the expected stimulus-driven economic recovery. However, others believe that the vaccine delays will slow the rebound.
- US jobless claims came out better than analysts expected: 847 000 vs. the forecast of 880 000. However, the US GDP for the fourth quarter of 2020 grew lower than anticipated: 4.0% vs. 4.2%. US CB Leading index came out along with expectations.
EUR/USD has failed to cross the support of 1.2100. If it manages to break this level finally, the way down to the low of December 18 at 1.2050 will be clear. On the flip side, the move above the 50-period moving average of 1.2130 will drive the pair to the high of January 27 at 1.2170.
GBP/USD has bounced off the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator at 1.3700. If the pair drives above yesterday’s high of 1.3750, the way up to the next round number of 1.3800 will be open. Support levels are 1.3700 and 1.3650.
USD/JPY has escaped the channel it has been trading inside for a year. Today it has even jumped above the 200-day moving average of 104.50. If the bulls keep momentum, the price may be driven to the next resistance of 105.00. Support levels are at the psychological mark of 104.00 and at the low of January 21 at 103.35.
AUD/USD retreated to the 200-period moving average of 0.7665. It should be just a retracement ahead of further falling. On the way down, the pair may meet support levels at yesterday’s low of 0.7600 and low of December 28 at 0.7570.
US Retail Sales will be out on October 15 at 15:30 MetaTrader time (GMT+3).
Australia will release employment change and an unemployment rate on Thursday, October 14, at 03:30 MT (GMT+3).
The US dollar is heading to close the seventh day in the red as it remains under selling pressure. The US data at 15:30 GMT+3 (jobless claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index) may support the greenback if it's strong.
Canada will publish the Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales on October 22, at 15:30 MT time (GMT+3).
The United States will release the weekly Unemployment Claims on October 21, at 15:30 MT time (GMT+3).