Market Crash Incoming?
This week may be the most important since the year started as the Fed assess the economic outlook and the US presents fresh NFP readings.
USD is strong, stocks recover after yesterday's losses
Latest news:
- New Zealand has published encouraging labor data. NZD/USD has modestly risen after the report.
- US stocks have started recovering after yesterday’s drop. They fell on a sale of tech stocks and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s comments on interest rates. Yellen claimed that the rates are likely to rise as government spending is increasing and the recovery is faster than expected. However, after that, she reassured investors by saying she wasn’t forecasting or recommending rate hikes.
- Crude oil surged as the rebound from the Covid-19 pandemic picks up the demand. XBR/USD (UK Brent oil) has approached the key psychological mark of $70.00.
- All eyes today on US data: ADP report (an early look at NFP), Services PMI, and crude oil inventories.
Technical tips
EUR/USD has just crossed the psychological level of 1.2000. This breakout will drive the pair down to the intersection of the 50- and 200- moving averages at 1.1950, where the falling should stop. On the other hand, the jump above Monday’s high of 1.2075 will drive the pair to the upper trend line of 1.2125.
NZD/USD is trending up inside the ascending channel. If t manages to break April’s high of 0.7300, it may rally up further to the next round number of 0.7500. On the flip side, if it drops below the lower trend line at 0.7100, it may fall to the psychological level of 0.7000. This scenario is the least possible as it has failed to cross this support line for over a year.
AUD/USD has been moving sideways between 0.7700 and 0.7800. Thus, this time it’s likely to bounce off the 0.7700 support again. If this is right, on the way up the pair will meet the resistance at Mondays’ high of 0.7760.
Finally, let’s discuss crude oil on the example of XBR/USD (UK Brent oil). If it manages to break above the $70.00 milestone, the way up to $75.00 will be open. However, it’s unlikely to rally for so long as on the weekly chart, the RSI indicator has approached the 70.00 level, signaling the asset is overbought. Therefore, we might expect the reverse down from $70.00. On the way down, the oil may struggle to cross support levels at the recent low of $65.00 and the 200-weekly moving average of $60.00.
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