Market Outlook For February 21-25
Last week was full of surprises! The US dollar plunged despite a better-than-expected retail sales report…
USD rose on market uncertainty
Fundamentals
- The week has started with mixed market sentiment. Coronavirus cases continue rising, especially in Europe, where countries have been forced to impose restrictions, but have still avoided full lockdowns. Therefore, there are some chances that the economic recovery will slow down in that area. The situation in the USA isn’t better as the record number of new infections was recorded on Saturday: 82 668.
- The stimulus talks between Democrats and Republicans keep going, showing some progress. However, the deal won’t be reached until after the election.
- As for the Brexit front, hopes were rising, but then the situation got worse as the French president threatened to ruin the Brexit deal, if French fishermen are negatively impacted. Some reports showed that the compromise between France and the UK is near.
Technical tips
EUR/USD is trading inside of the ascending channel. It approaches its upper trendline, that’s why we can expect some sort of falling ahead of the further rising. Pay close attention to 1.1800 as it may reverse from it and start moving up. If it manages to break the resistance of 1.1860, the way to the key psychological mark of 1.1900 will be clear.
The British pound is edging lower. The move below the 50-day moving average of 1.3000 will drive GBP/USD to October’s lows of 1.2870. But again, we can anticipate the reverse to occur here as the 1.3000 level has been acting as strong support. If it bounces off it, the way to the recent high of 1.3150 will be clear.
Gold reversed from the upper trendline and has been declining for the third day. The move below the recent low of $1 890 will push XAU/USD to the low of October 6 at $1 875. In the opposite scenario, if it rises above the recent highs of $1 912, the doors towards the next resistance of $1 925 will be open.
Finally, let’s talk about the S&P 500. It entered the descending channel. If it drops below the key support of 3 400, the way to 3 385 will be open. Otherwise, the move above the 100-period moving average of 3 440 will push the stock index to the high of October 23 at 3 460.
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Latest news
How Will US PMIs Affect the USD?
The US Markit will publish Flash Manufacturing and Flash Services PMIs (purchasing managers' indices) on June 23 at 16:45 GMT+3.
Will Fed Chair Powell Move the USD?
The Fed Chair Jerome Powell will testify on the Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report before the House Financial Services Committee on June 22-23 at 17:00 GMT+3.
What Can Happen to the CAD after the Retail Data?
Canada will publish Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales on June 21 at 15:30 GMT+3.
