The US dollar index keeps rounding above the 103.60 historical support level. The buyers have already defended this level for three weeks, highlighting their interest in the greenback. Thus, buying USD looks less risky right now.
USD softened on Tuesday
- The US is going to unveil the much-awaited $1.9 trillion stimulus package. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen claimed that Biden’s stimulus should help to speed up a “very strong” US economic recovery, and also emphasized that “there are tools” to deal with inflation.
- As a result, the market sentiment slightly improved, but investors remain cautious as they think a huge stimulus may drive the economy to overheat and inflation to get out of control.
- Nasdaq retreated after Monday’s deep slump. S&P 500 climbed as well but stayed below the resistance of 3,850.
- US Treasury yields rose on expectations for higher inflation and faster economic rebound. The US dollar index reached November’s highs.
- Oil dropped due to the strong greenback and an attack on the world’s largest crude terminal in Saudi Arabia.
EUR/USD has bounced off the 200-day moving average of 1.1815. If the pair manages to rise above the resistance of 1.1950, the way up to the 100-day MA of 1.2030 will be clear. Support levels are 1.1815 and 1.1775.
GBP/USD is heading upwards as well. If it jumps above the high of March 5 at 1.3900, it may rise to the next resistance of 1.3950. Support levels are 1.3800 and the 50-day MA of 1.3750.
USD/JPY’s rally is unstoppable! It has broken the 200-day MA of 109.00. Therefore, the way up to the high of May 2020 at 109.50 is clear. However, the RSI hit the 70.00 level, indicating the pair is overbought. Besides, the price has surpassed the upper line of Bollinger Bands a few days ago. Therefore, we may see a pullback soon. Support levels are 108.50 and 108.00.
Gold has been dipping in both the long and short terms. Gold may rise to the resistance of $1,700, which it can struggle to break. But if crosses it, the way up to the high of March 2 at $1,740 will be open. Support levels are $1,675 and $1,650.
On the H4 timeframe, the US dollar index has formed a bullish falling wedge. At the beginning of the trading session, the price is testing the upper border of this wedge. Thus, in case of a higher-than-expected Core PCE Price Index m/m, the US dollar will skyrocket against other currencies.
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This week may be the most important since the year started as the Fed assess the economic outlook and the US presents fresh NFP readings.
S&P Global, a private banking company, will release a monthly change in British Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on January 24, 11:30 GMT+2. The index is a leading indicator of economic health as businesses react quickly to market conditions, and purchasing managers hold the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy.
The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) m/m on January 12 at 15:30 GMT+2. The index measures a change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.