The US dollar index keeps rounding above the 103.60 historical support level. The buyers have already defended this level for three weeks, highlighting their interest in the greenback. Thus, buying USD looks less risky right now.
USD strengthens, S&P 500 takes a break on Friday
- Yesterday, S&P surged to the all-time high of 3960, driven by Biden’s $1.9 trillion relief bill. Today the stock index has taken a break. Meanwhile, the US dollar is edging higher today, pressing down its peers.
- The huge stimulus package in combination with the vaccine rollout and encouraging economic data gave hope for a more sustained and fast economic growth this year and thus improved the market sentiment.
- According to China Construction Bank International, the unveiled stimulus with a better-than-expected US bond auction will support a rally in tech stocks and a rotation between growth and value stocks in the next few weeks.
- On Thursday, the European Central Bank promised to continue buying bonds at the current pace to keep rising yields from disrupting the recovery.
- US-China tensions are growing as Biden announced new restrictions on tech exports to China, this message was addressed mainly to Huawei Technologies.
EUR/USD bounced off the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1990. Thus, it’s more likely to drop to the 23.6% Fibo level of 1.1930, which it should have struggles to cross as it lies on the middle line of Bollinger Bands as well. Therefore, the pullback should happen at 1.1930.
GBP/USD is in a similar situation as EUR/USD. It bounced off the 50.00% Fibo level and the upper line of Bollinger Bands at 1.4000. It has almost broken through the 38.2% Fibo level of 1.3950 and now it’s heading towards the next support area at the 50-period moving average of 1.3900 and the 23.6% Fibo level of 1.3885. It should reverse up near this area.
USD/JPY has approached the key psychological mark of 109.00 at the upper line of Bollinger Bands, thus it’s likely to bounce off this level rather than break out as it’s a strong resistance. Support levels are at the recent lows of 108.35 and the 50-period MA at 108.00.
USD/CAD is rising amid the strong greenback. It should rise to the middle line of Bollinger Bands at 1.2600. If it manages to break it, the way up to the 50-period MA of 1.2635 will be clear. Support levels are yesterday’s low of 1.2625 and February’s low of 1.2480. Canada will publish its job data at 15:30 MT time. Follow it as it will add fresh volatility to USD/CAD.
On the H4 timeframe, the US dollar index has formed a bullish falling wedge. At the beginning of the trading session, the price is testing the upper border of this wedge. Thus, in case of a higher-than-expected Core PCE Price Index m/m, the US dollar will skyrocket against other currencies.
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This week may be the most important since the year started as the Fed assess the economic outlook and the US presents fresh NFP readings.
S&P Global, a private banking company, will release a monthly change in British Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on January 24, 11:30 GMT+2. The index is a leading indicator of economic health as businesses react quickly to market conditions, and purchasing managers hold the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy.
The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) m/m on January 12 at 15:30 GMT+2. The index measures a change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.