Market Outlook For February 21-25
Last week was full of surprises! The US dollar plunged despite a better-than-expected retail sales report…
USD surged after Fed’s hawkish surprise
Latest news
- The Fed made a hawkish surprise! The bank would start a discussion about scaling back bond purchases. Besides, it is likely to make two interest-rate increases by the end of 2023 (sooner than expected)! Finally, the central bank raised estimates for inflation for the next three years and upgraded the GDP growth to 7% for this year from the prior 6.5%. As a result, the US dollar surged to levels unseen since early May, while stocks, stock indices, crude oil, and gold sharply dropped.
- Australian labor data came out better than expected. The number of employed Australians rose to 115,000, while only 30,000 were forecasted. The jobless rate was 5.1%, better than the anticipated 5.5%. AUD/USD is likely to rise today due to the positive labor data.
- Turkey’s central bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged. The Turkish lira is traded at the local lows. USD/TRY has just crossed 8.60, and it’s edging higher to 8.70.
Technical outlook
EUR/USD dropped enormously! The pair has just broken below the psychological mark of 1.2000 and the 200-day moving average. Now it is getting closer to the lower trend line at 1.1950, which the pair may struggle to break. The RSI indicator is below 30,00 on the 4-hour chart, signaling the pair is oversold. Thus, we might expect the reverse up soon. The move above 1.2000 will drive EUR/USD back to 1.2050.
It’s quite an interesting situation on the gold chart! XAU/USD has broken the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and pulled back to it. The long upper shadow tells us that the price is going to reverse down. The move below the 50.0% Fibo level of $1800 will push the metal to the next level at $1770.
S&P 500 has reversed down and touched the lower trend line at 4175. It’s a perfect opportunity to buy such a credible stock index at a lower price! The move above Tuesday’s high of 4260 will drive the stock index to the psychological mark of 4300. Support levels are at the 50-day moving average of 4175 and the mid-May lows of 4115.
Watch the daily report!
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Latest news
What’s New with Australian Unemployment Rate?
The Australian Bureau of Statistics will announce the updated Unemployment Rate and Employment Change data on Thursday, May 19, at 04:30 MT.
Can the UK CPI surprise?
The UK Office for National Statistics will publish Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Wednesday, May 18, at 09:00 MT.
The US Retail Sales Update
The US Census Bureau will announce Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales on Tuesday, May 17 at 15:30 MT.
