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The US Fed rate will be announced on March 17, at 20:00 MT time.
While the rate itself is not expected to see any change, the economic outlook is what traders will be looking at. On the humanitarian side, the vaccines are expected to drive the recovery towards returning to normal conditions this year. On the financial side, while the economy is on the way to the targeted inflation rate of 2%, the rise of the Treasury yields has been a headline since recently and may be addressed by the Fed’s officials.
If the above projections of a steady economic recovery ahead in the US are confirmed, the USD will likely gain value on traders’ optimism. A more pessimistic outlook would press on the US dollar.
Instruments to trade: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CAD
The US dollar index keeps rounding above the 103.60 historical support level. The buyers have already defended this level for three weeks, highlighting their interest in the greenback. Thus, buying USD looks less risky right now.
On the H4 timeframe, the US dollar index has formed a bullish falling wedge. At the beginning of the trading session, the price is testing the upper border of this wedge. Thus, in case of a higher-than-expected Core PCE Price Index m/m, the US dollar will skyrocket against other currencies.
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S&P Global, a private banking company, will release a monthly change in British Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on January 24, 11:30 GMT+2. The index is a leading indicator of economic health as businesses react quickly to market conditions, and purchasing managers hold the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy.
The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) m/m on January 12 at 15:30 GMT+2. The index measures a change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.
2022 was rough: inflation, energy crisis, and plenty of other controversial situations…
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