Market Outlook For February 21-25
Last week was full of surprises! The US dollar plunged despite a better-than-expected retail sales report…
Vaccine hopes vs. Covid-19 resurgence
The market sentiment is mixed, and the US dollar is trading near the lowest levels for over two years. Let’s have a look at the main market movements today.
Fundamentals
- Pfizer held the final trial and announced that its vaccine is 95% effective. The company will apply for the first US regulatory authorization this week.
- However, the tug-of-war between vaccine hopes and the Covid-19 resurgence continues. Europe and the USA have imposed fresh social distancing restrictions. Just yesterday New York shut down schools, and that pushed the S&P 500 even lower.
- Australia’s labor market is on the way to recovery. Employment change and the jobless rate were better than expected. However, AUD/USD is dipping, despite the optimistic data.
- Good news for the UK: EU Trade Commissioner claimed that the Brexit deal is in the last moments to be reached. Elsewhere, UK’s inflation data beat estimates yesterday and that added tailwinds to the GBP as well.
- Pay attention to the releases of the US data and Lagarde’s speech as it will impact most of the pairs!
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Technical tips
EUR/USD
EUR/USD has been nicely supported by the 50-period moving average so far, so we can assume that the pair can bounce off it and jump higher to the 1.1890-1.1900 area, where we can await the pullback. If it manages to break it, the way to 1.2000 will be clear. In the opposite scenario, if it drops below the 50-period moving average of 1.1835, it may fall to the next support of 1.18000.
GBP/USD
Fundamentals are positive for the pound, and GBP/USD is approaching the support of the 50-period moving average, so perhaps it should reverse and rally up. There is a strong resistance at the 1.3290-1.3300 zone. If it manages to break it, the way to the next round number of 1.3350 will be clear.
Gold
XAU/USD is trading near the strong support of $1 860, which it has failed to cross several times already. Therefore, gold may turn to the upside and rise till it reaches the resistance of $1 880. However, if it breaks through $1 860, it may fall to September’s dips of $1 850.
S&P 500
The S&P 500 has fallen below the 50-period moving average, and now it’s trying to regain its losses. If it jumps above the resistance of 3 590, the way up to 3 630 will be open. Support levels are 3 560 and 3 460.
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Latest news
What’s New with Australian Unemployment Rate?
The Australian Bureau of Statistics will announce the updated Unemployment Rate and Employment Change data on Thursday, May 19, at 04:30 MT.
Can the UK CPI surprise?
The UK Office for National Statistics will publish Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Wednesday, May 18, at 09:00 MT.
The US Retail Sales Update
The US Census Bureau will announce Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales on Tuesday, May 17 at 15:30 MT.
