VW: German car manufacturers have 50:50 likelihood of facing Detroit's fate

There’s a 50% probability of surviving as major players in the automotive industry for German car makers unless they have their businesses reformed to meet new rules and adapt supply chains. That’s what Volkswagen's chief executive uncovered on Tuesday.

German car makers have already complained about fresh rules, including bans on older diesel cars in German cities as well as broader EU measures to reduce car emissions, telling that they will affect Europe's automotive industry as well as cost jobs.

Tougher regulations could push some car manufactures out of business due to the extremely high tempo of reforms needed to shift output to electric vehicles and also to respond to new geopolitical threats.

European Union lawmakers have made up their mind to seek a 35% trim in car emissions by 2030. That’s definitely a higher level than Germany had previously counted on. EU lawmakers were forced to come up with this initiative after a UN report called for radical steps to have global warming speeded down.

Germany's Audi, Mercedes, and BMW brands hold approximately 90% market share in the premium car segment. An escalating push to reduce emissions affects high horsepower cars and German brands in particular.

To reduce average fleet emissions of carbon dioxide in the European Union by nearly 30% by 2030, German car maker Volkswagen has to ramp up its share of electric cars to nearly 30% of fresh car sales.

It’s apparent that a reduction of nearly 40% CO2 fleet emissions would require about half of the new vehicles sold to be 100% electric.

The push to reduce car carbon dioxide emissions, which are the number one greenhouse gas blamed for global warming, would undoubtedly provoke a jump in CO2 pollution in Germany, considering the country's traditional dependence on generating electricity from coal.

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