The US dollar index keeps rounding above the 103.60 historical support level. The buyers have already defended this level for three weeks, highlighting their interest in the greenback. Thus, buying USD looks less risky right now.
Weekly US employment data: chances for the USD
The United States will release unemployment claims on August 20, at 15:30 MT time.
Instruments to trade: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY
We continue to closely follow the situation with US employment. The release of US unemployment claims provides us an overview of the current situation in the labor market of the biggest economy. It is the number of people who applied for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. Judging by these figures, analysts may suggest what the next NFP release is going to be. Last week, the actual level of unemployment claims came out lower than the forecast of 1 410K. The data showed 1 186K people filed for unemployment benefits. This time analysts expect an even lower number of people (1 120K).
- If the indicator is higher than the forecasts, the USD will fall;
- If the indicator is lower than the forecasts, the USD will rise.
On the H4 timeframe, the US dollar index has formed a bullish falling wedge. At the beginning of the trading session, the price is testing the upper border of this wedge. Thus, in case of a higher-than-expected Core PCE Price Index m/m, the US dollar will skyrocket against other currencies.
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This week may be the most important since the year started as the Fed assess the economic outlook and the US presents fresh NFP readings.
S&P Global, a private banking company, will release a monthly change in British Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on January 24, 11:30 GMT+2. The index is a leading indicator of economic health as businesses react quickly to market conditions, and purchasing managers hold the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy.
The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) m/m on January 12 at 15:30 GMT+2. The index measures a change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.