Market Outlook For February 21-25
Last week was full of surprises! The US dollar plunged despite a better-than-expected retail sales report…
What drives the market on June 17?
The market sentiment is mixed today. How to trade in such an uncertain environment?
Fundamental factors
- The Fed’s chairman Jerome Powell reported yesterday: “until the public is confident that the disease is contained, a full recovery is unlikely.” He anticipates the long way for economy to stabilize as levels of output and unemployment are still well below pre-crisis levels. He pointed to the widening gap between rich and poor in the USA as the crisis hit mostly low-income Americans and minorities.
- The new coronavirus outbreak happened in Beijing. China imposed strict restrictions. Also, Florida reported record new cases. Concerns about the second wave raised.
- Nevertheless, 1 trillion dollars from the Trump administration encouraged investors as well as the Federal Reserve has started to buy individual corporate bonds.
Technical tips
EUR/USD
EUR/USD formed the head and shoulders pattern on the 4-hour chart. If the price falls below the neckline support at 1.1200, it will drop even further after that. Also, the MACD indicator signals the bearish prospect for EUR as it went below zero. Otherwise, if the price crosses the left shoulder's high of 1.1350, it will open doors towards new highs near 1.1400.
S&P 500
S&P 500 has been climbing up the fourth day straight. Now it meets the resistance at 78.6% Fibonacci level at 3135. The move above this line will set a further bullish trend. The next resistance will be at 3230. Nevertheless, if the price drops below the key psychological support at 3000, it may fall even deeper to 2930. Watch closely!
XAU/USD
Gold is trading near $1730 last days. There are no huge price movements because market participants are hesitating as both risk-off and risk-on factors weigh a lot. On the economic side, the second round of Fed’s Chairman Jerome Powell and the US housing data can give additional hints to gold traders. The resistance is at 1750. Support levels are 1715 and 1700.
Coming market events:
- The Canadian consumer price index at 15:30 MT time will give the fresh stimulus. If the data is better than expected, CAD will rise.
- The US housing data will be published at 15:30 MT time.
- The second round of the Jerome Powell’s speech will be at 19:00 MT time. It will influence the overall market sentiment.
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Latest news
US PCE May Soar Soon
The United States Bureau of Economic Analysis will release monthly Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) on June 30, 15:30 GMT+3.
Bank of England Tries to Save the Pound
The governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, will hold a speech on June 29 at 15:30 MT time (GMT+3).
How Will US PMIs Affect the USD?
The US Markit will publish Flash Manufacturing and Flash Services PMIs (purchasing managers' indices) on June 23 at 16:45 GMT+3.
