Market Outlook For February 21-25
Last week was full of surprises! The US dollar plunged despite a better-than-expected retail sales report…
What drives the market on September 3?
Fundamentals
- The US dollar continues edging higher, pushing riskier currencies and gold to the downside. At the same time stock indices are climbing up to fresh highs, driven by vaccine hopes. It’s said that Moderna and Pfizer are planning to distribute Covid-19 vaccines as early as October. However, investors have some fears over the political pressure on the Center for Disease Control to rush the vaccine approval ahead of the US president elections.
- Yesterday ADP came out much less than analysts anticipated. Only 428 000 people have found jobs in August, while the forecast was 1.25 million. As you may know, the ADP report is often used as an initial assessment of the US labor market and helps to predict what will be the NFP like. Nevertheless, the last two times ADP reports failed to play this role as they came out worse than the forecasts, while NFP came out better.
- Traders are waiting for unemployment claims at 15:30 MT time today and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI at 17:00 MT time for some hints ahead of the Friday’s NFP.
Technical tips
EUR/USD
As for the euro, it is dipping down not only because of the rising US dollar, but also concerns of the ECB that the stronger euro may threaten the EU recovery. Let’s look at the charts. EUR/USD has just broken down the key support of 1.8000 and keeps falling down. The move below the lower trendline near the support of 1.1770 will drive the pair to the low of August 12 at 1.1715. Resistance levels are at 1.1800 and 1.1850.
S&P 500
S&P 500 has set a record high yesterday, almost touching the 3 600 mark. If it manages to cross this level, it will jump to the key psychological mark of 3 650. Support levels are at 3 550 and 3 500.
XAU/USD
Let’s move on to gold. XAU/USD was fluctuating inside of the triangle and finally it broke it down. If it falls below the support of $1 930, the way to the next support of $1 910 will be clear. Resistance levels are at $1 950 and $1 990.
USD/JPY
Finally, let’s discuss USD/JPY. The pair keeps rallying upward. If it crosses the high of August 26 at 106.50, the doors towards the high of August 28 at 106.70 will be open. Support levels are at the key psychological mark of 106.00 and at the low of September 1 at 105.70.
Follow US PMI report and unemployment claims!
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