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Here are the most important topics that will determine the dynamics of currencies, commodities and stocks on Thursday, April 9. Notice that volatility is expected to rise during the day providing opportunities for active traders.
Coronavirus. According to the latest data from Europe, Italy and Spain both recorded the most new cases in days, while the UK announced a record number of coronavirus deaths. Prime Minister Boris Johnson remains in intensive care, although his condition has improved. Be ready for the extension of the lockdown period. Notice, however, that both forecasts from Italian and Spanish governments and experts said that the peak of the virus could come within days. These expectations will likely support the market sentiment and, consequently, riskier assets such as the AUD, the NZD, exotic currencies, and stocks.
Dismal economic forecasts. Analysts compete with each other in negativity about the futures of the global economy. The World Trade Organization said on Wednesday that the pandemic could cause a bigger damage of international trade flows than at any point in the postwar era. Wall Street banks went further and provided a number: according to them, the coronavirus will reduce the world's GDP growth by more than $5 trillion over the next two years. This number exceeds the annual output of Japan.
US jobless claims. Today we’ll get another update on the indicator that has recently reached unprecedented levels. Forecasts are that there will be 5 million new claims after a total of nearly 10 million claims over the past two weeks. Don’t expect the USD to take a hit after the release: everyone is ready for such a number and the greenback remains the safe-haven of choice.
European failure. There’s no relief for the EUR as European Union finance ministers failed in all-night talks to agree on more economic support for the region’s economies. The negotiations will resume at 18:00 GMT on Thursday. If something is announced late during the day, it will be able to cause big moves in EUR/USD as the amount of liquidity will be lower ahead of the US bank holiday on Friday. So far, the pair has been limited by the 100-period MA at 1.0880 (H4), while support is at 1.0835 and 1.0805.
OPEC+ meeting. The pandemic won’t keep the world’s top oil producers from discussing the output cut: a video conference is scheduled for 15.00 MT time. There have been positive signals from Russia regarding the deal. Brent is consolidating in the $33.00 area. The deal will make the price jump above $45, while the failure will trigger a decline towards $23.50 and $21.65.
The US dollar index keeps rounding above the 103.60 historical support level. The buyers have already defended this level for three weeks, highlighting their interest in the greenback. Thus, buying USD looks less risky right now.
On the H4 timeframe, the US dollar index has formed a bullish falling wedge. At the beginning of the trading session, the price is testing the upper border of this wedge. Thus, in case of a higher-than-expected Core PCE Price Index m/m, the US dollar will skyrocket against other currencies.
Happy Wednesday, traders! We went through the Internet and found the best news for you, take a look!
S&P Global, a private banking company, will release a monthly change in British Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on January 24, 11:30 GMT+2. The index is a leading indicator of economic health as businesses react quickly to market conditions, and purchasing managers hold the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy.
The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) m/m on January 12 at 15:30 GMT+2. The index measures a change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.
2022 was rough: inflation, energy crisis, and plenty of other controversial situations…
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