How to trade on August 4?
The market sentiment improved amid the slowdown in virus cases. Let's have a closer look at the AUD, S&P 500, gold and the GBP.
What will affect markets on July 3?
The overall market sentiment was mixed after the USA recorded the largest increase in virus cases since May 9. The data even offset the better-than-expected NFP.
Fundamental factors
- The US Covid-19 cases skyrocketed to 51 500 on Thursday. Those intimidating numbers are rising every day. The risk-off market tone prevails on the market.
- The US labor market showed greater development than analysts expected. Non-farm payrolls rose by 4.8 million, while the forecast was only - 3 million. It improved the market sentiment yesterday, but today the bullish rally lost steam as the USA is suffering from the record virus resurgence.
- Sino-American tensions continue worsening. The US officials claimed that they are “unhappy with China” and “there are going to be export restrictions.”.
- Australian retails sales came better than expected. They grew by 16.9%, while analysts anticipated the 16.3% increase.
Watch our daily forex trading plan!
Technical factors
EUR/USD
EUR/USD dropped significantly after the better-than-expected NFP report yesterday. Nevertheless, today, the EUR may rise as US coronavirus cases are increasing, while Europe new infections are declining. If the pair rises to the 50-period moving average at 1.1250, it may surge further to the yesterday high at 1.1265. After that it may meet the next resistance already at 1.1300. Look for support levels at recent lows at 1.1230 and 1.1210.
S&P 500
S&P 500 is rallying despite record US infections. Now it’s heading towards the resistance at the June 19 at 3 200. If it crosses it, it may surge further to 3 225 and then to the all-time high at 3 3390. Support levels are at the 200-moving average at 3 025 and at the key psychological mark at 3 000.
AUD/USD
The AUD gained on the positive retail data. It surged to the resistance at 0.695. The move above this level will push the price upward to the high of June 23 at 0.697. Support levels are 0.691 and 0.689.
XAU/USD
Gold is stuck near the $1 775 level. The move above the 8-year high at $1 780 will encourage bulls to go long further on gold. Most analysts still highly expect the gold price to break through $1 800. The break below the low of June 24 at $1 760 may push prices to the next support at the 50-day moving average at $1 727.
Follow news:
- The European Final Services PMI will be released at 11:00 MT time and will add volatility to the EUR.
- Half an hour later the UK Final Services PMI will be reported. Stay tuned!
Similar
All eyes on AUD
The RBA will make a rate statement on August 4 at 7:30 MT time.
Main market movements on July 31
The overall market sentiment is mixed as new virus cases continue rising throughout the world, but most economic indicators came out better than analysts expected. Let’s look at the main market movements.
Latest news
Big day for USD
The US NFP will be published on August 7 at 15:30 MT time.
Main market movements on August 6
The market sentiment is indeed risk-on today. Stocks, riskier currencies and gold are rising amid the waning US dollar.
GBP is in focus
Follow the BOE monetary policy and rate statements on August 6 at 14:00 MT time…
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