The US dollar index keeps rounding above the 103.60 historical support level. The buyers have already defended this level for three weeks, highlighting their interest in the greenback. Thus, buying USD looks less risky right now.
What will move the market on February 14-18?
Last week was very interesting for the markets, as we saw the releases of the US Inflation and Disney’s earnings report. So let's see what we should await this week!
Last Thursday, the US CPI outperformed the forecasts (0.6% vs the forecast of 0.4%). As a result, the US dollar index got stronger, but the bullish pressure wasn't enough to break above the 50-day SMA (the 96 level). This week we will continue monitoring the situation in the US economy with the releases of PPI and retail sales. However, the most notable event happens on Wednesday, as the Federal Reserve publishes the FOMC Meeting Minutes. The market is currently pricing in 7 rate hikes in 2022, with one planned in March. The USD will strengthen if we find more hawkish hints in the Meeting Minutes. For EUR/USD, follow the key support at 1.1300 and the resistance at 1.1480.
Last week was full of ups and downs for the US stock market. The major American index S&P500 (US500) managed to climb to the 100-day moving average but corrected towards 4450 on Thursday after the US CPI release. The same thing happened to the Nasdaq (US100), which could not break above the 15 000 level. As for the earnings season, Disney’s release made its stock gap higher. This week, we will see the releases of AIG, Cisco, Nvidia, and Walmart.
Oil & gold
After marking the high above the 90 level, Brent and WTI were consolidating at their highs. The non-eventful outcome of the OPEC+ meeting and the uncertainty over nuclear talks between Iran and the USA are the main factors that determine oil prices' performance. If more supply is added, the price of WTI will plunge to $86, and the price of Brent will go down to $88.5. As for gold, it fell below the $1830 level. If the American indicators show strength, the yellow metal will plunge to $1815-$1810. On the upside, the main obstacle lies at $1830.
On the H4 timeframe, the US dollar index has formed a bullish falling wedge. At the beginning of the trading session, the price is testing the upper border of this wedge. Thus, in case of a higher-than-expected Core PCE Price Index m/m, the US dollar will skyrocket against other currencies.
Happy Wednesday, traders! We went through the Internet and found the best news for you, take a look!
This week may be the most important since the year started as the Fed assess the economic outlook and the US presents fresh NFP readings.
S&P Global, a private banking company, will release a monthly change in British Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on January 24, 11:30 GMT+2. The index is a leading indicator of economic health as businesses react quickly to market conditions, and purchasing managers hold the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy.
The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) m/m on January 12 at 15:30 GMT+2. The index measures a change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.