The US dollar index keeps rounding above the 103.60 historical support level. The buyers have already defended this level for three weeks, highlighting their interest in the greenback. Thus, buying USD looks less risky right now.
Will inflation push the greenback higher?
What will happen?
The United States will publish a monthly Inflation Rate and Core Inflation Rate on May 12, at 15:30 MT time. The Inflation rate measures the change in the price of goods and services. The core indicator is different as it does not include food and energy prices. The Federal Reserve pays particular attention to these indicators because a rise in inflation pushes the regulator towards monetary policy tightening. As a result, the US dollar goes higher.
How to trade on the releases of Inflation and Core Inflation?
Nothing can be easier! Pay attention to the forecasts in the economic calendar and trade in the right direction right after the release.
- If the indicators are higher than the forecasts, the USD will go higher;
- On the other hand, the USD will weaken against other currencies.
Instruments to trade: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY
On the H4 timeframe, the US dollar index has formed a bullish falling wedge. At the beginning of the trading session, the price is testing the upper border of this wedge. Thus, in case of a higher-than-expected Core PCE Price Index m/m, the US dollar will skyrocket against other currencies.
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This week may be the most important since the year started as the Fed assess the economic outlook and the US presents fresh NFP readings.
S&P Global, a private banking company, will release a monthly change in British Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on January 24, 11:30 GMT+2. The index is a leading indicator of economic health as businesses react quickly to market conditions, and purchasing managers hold the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy.
The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) m/m on January 12 at 15:30 GMT+2. The index measures a change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.