The British monthly GDP is announced on Friday at 09:00 MT time.
Will sentiment remain risk-on on Monday?
Riskier assets and gold ended last week with huge gains due to the weak US dollar’s performance. Let’s discuss what will drive the markets today.
- Hopes of the additional fiscal stimulus package improved the market sentiment. US President Donald Trump pledged to unveil a $1.8 trillion in form of individual checks and also an extension of the Paycheck Protection Program.
- Joe Biden is leading an election competition as he has 12 points more than Donald Trump in a national poll. Investors have been encouraged by this news as Biden is going to impose a larger fiscal stimulus package.
- Today is the national holiday in both the USA and Canada, that’s why the market volatility may be slightly reduced.
- As for Brexit, last week hasn’t shown any progress in the UK-EU deal. UK Prime Minister claimed that the agreement should be reached before October 15, otherwise he is going to leave negotiations. Anyway, the British pound keeps rallying amid the risk-on mood.
- Crude oil prices surged, driven by the combination of factors such as improved market sentiment, the strike in Norway, and the hurricane Delta in the Gulf of Mexico.
EUR/USD has broken through the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.1810. After a short selling, the pair is likely to rise further to the 61.8% Fibo level of 1.1860. If it manages to cross this level, it will jump to the key psychological mark of 1.1900. On the flip side, if it falls below the area of 1.1800-1.8100, the doors towards the 38.2% Fibo level of 1.1765 will be open.
S&P 500 is edging higher by the risk-on sentiment. Elsewhere, the 50-period moving average crosses the 200-period MA bottom up, forming a golden cross, which is a bullish signal. It has just crossed the resistance of 3 480, clearing the way towards the high of August 31 at 3 525. Once it closes above this level, it may jump to the all-time peak of 3 580. In the opposite scenario, the move below 3 445 will push the stock index to the 200-period MA of 3 390.
XAU/USD has broken through the two-month trendline, revealing its intention to keep rallying further. If gold rises to the 50-day moving average of $1 940, it may rise to the high of September 16 of $1 960. Support levels are $1 915 and $1 900.
The British pound is climbing up. The move above the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.3080 will drive the price to the 61.8% Fibo level of 1.3175. On the flip side, the move below the area of 1.2980-1.3000 will push the price to the 23.6% Fibo level of 1.2870.
Follow the speech of the BoE’s governor Bailey. The more optimistic he will be about the UK economic recovery – the better for the pound.
The main market tendency today is that the US dollar is rising against its major peers and riskier assets such as stocks and oil are plummeting.
The US unemployment claims are out on Thursday at 15:30 MT time.
The European Central Bank will publish the monetary policy statement with the interest rate decision on January 21, at 14:45 MT time.
Joe Biden is going to unveil a Covid-19 relief package of about $2 trillion. After this announcement, the 10-year Treasury yield rose, adding support for the USD.
The US dollar’s weakness offered a boost to emerging-market currencies and oil.