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Riskier assets and gold ended last week with huge gains due to the weak US dollar’s performance. Let’s discuss what will drive the markets today.
EUR/USD has broken through the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.1810. After a short selling, the pair is likely to rise further to the 61.8% Fibo level of 1.1860. If it manages to cross this level, it will jump to the key psychological mark of 1.1900. On the flip side, if it falls below the area of 1.1800-1.8100, the doors towards the 38.2% Fibo level of 1.1765 will be open.
S&P 500 is edging higher by the risk-on sentiment. Elsewhere, the 50-period moving average crosses the 200-period MA bottom up, forming a golden cross, which is a bullish signal. It has just crossed the resistance of 3 480, clearing the way towards the high of August 31 at 3 525. Once it closes above this level, it may jump to the all-time peak of 3 580. In the opposite scenario, the move below 3 445 will push the stock index to the 200-period MA of 3 390.
XAU/USD has broken through the two-month trendline, revealing its intention to keep rallying further. If gold rises to the 50-day moving average of $1 940, it may rise to the high of September 16 of $1 960. Support levels are $1 915 and $1 900.
The British pound is climbing up. The move above the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.3080 will drive the price to the 61.8% Fibo level of 1.3175. On the flip side, the move below the area of 1.2980-1.3000 will push the price to the 23.6% Fibo level of 1.2870.
Follow the speech of the BoE’s governor Bailey. The more optimistic he will be about the UK economic recovery – the better for the pound.
The US dollar index keeps rounding above the 103.60 historical support level. The buyers have already defended this level for three weeks, highlighting their interest in the greenback. Thus, buying USD looks less risky right now.
On the H4 timeframe, the US dollar index has formed a bullish falling wedge. At the beginning of the trading session, the price is testing the upper border of this wedge. Thus, in case of a higher-than-expected Core PCE Price Index m/m, the US dollar will skyrocket against other currencies.
Happy Wednesday, traders! We went through the Internet and found the best news for you, take a look!
This week may be the most important since the year started as the Fed assess the economic outlook and the US presents fresh NFP readings.
S&P Global, a private banking company, will release a monthly change in British Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on January 24, 11:30 GMT+2. The index is a leading indicator of economic health as businesses react quickly to market conditions, and purchasing managers hold the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy.
The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) m/m on January 12 at 15:30 GMT+2. The index measures a change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.
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