The US dollar’s weakness offered a boost to emerging-market currencies and oil.
Will the AUD rise on a steady rate?
RBA will announce its interest rate on Tuesday at 07:30 MT time.
Instruments to trade: AUD/USD, AUD/NZD, AUD/CHF, EUR/AUD
On March 19, the interest rate of Australia was reduced to 0.25%. Since then, it was kept steady. The Reserve Bank of Australia informed that there will be no intention to increase the rate until there is full employment, a 2-3% inflation rate, and other indications that the economy is recovering. That means the rate will be kept steady in the nearest future as the virus fallout has just started to be visible. Although certain economic improvements are reported in Australia, the prevailing expectation is that this quarter will bring a severe contraction in the economy and the jobless rates will surge. Hence, we will look at the tone of the RBA press conference to gather details of the outlook for the AUD.
- If the bank’s tone is hawkish, the AUD will rise.
- If the bank’s tone is dovish, the AUD will fall.
The main market tendency today is that the US dollar is rising against its major peers and riskier assets such as stocks and oil are plummeting.
The US unemployment claims are out on Thursday at 15:30 MT time.
Poor US data, slow vaccine distribution, rising virus cases worsened the market sentiment and underpinned safe-haven currencies like the USD, and JPY.
The European Central Bank will publish the monetary policy statement with the interest rate decision on January 21, at 14:45 MT time.
Joe Biden is going to unveil a Covid-19 relief package of about $2 trillion. After this announcement, the 10-year Treasury yield rose, adding support for the USD.