The American CPI is announced on Wednesday at 15:30 MT time.
Will the Canadian inflation rate rise?
The Canadian year-on-year inflation rate will be released at 15:30 MT time on November 20.
The October release of the year-on-year inflation rate was 1.9%. That was below the expected 2.1%. November 20 offers a similar possibility: the forecast is the same 2.1%. If the rate is again 1.9%, that would be the third month in a row of the inflation showing no move in either direction. The analysts advise that the Canadian economy has been on a steady growth course in general, with certain internal weaknesses though. The worse-than-expected jobs data referencing the October employment dynamics may have a negative impact on the inflation rate through lower industrial activity. However, if the announced rate exceeds the market expectation, that should appreciate the Canadian dollar.
- If the inflation rate exceeds the market expectation, the CAD will rise;
- If the inflation rate does not exceed the market expectation, the CAD will fall.
US stocks and oil slipped as Donald Trump threatened not to sign a long-awaited stimulus bill into law. The market sentiment had been already fragile, and Trump’s comments worsened it even more.
Canada's retail sales will be out on Friday at 15:30 MT time.
Poor US data, slow vaccine distribution, rising virus cases worsened the market sentiment and underpinned safe-haven currencies like the USD, and JPY.
The European Central Bank will publish the monetary policy statement with the interest rate decision on January 21, at 14:45 MT time.
Joe Biden is going to unveil a Covid-19 relief package of about $2 trillion. After this announcement, the 10-year Treasury yield rose, adding support for the USD.