Germany, the leading economy in the Euro Zone, will reveal one of the key economic indicators – German Ifo Business Climate on September 24 at 11:00 MT time.
Will the ECB Press Conference have a positive influence on the euro?
The ECB will announce the main refinancing rate at 14:45 and give a press conference at 15:30 MT time on December 12.
Since 2016 the European main refinancing rate has been kept at 0%. The legacy of the former ECB President Mario Draghi was to keep the rate unchanged until the inflation rate in Europe comes sufficiently close to but below 2%. The preliminary inflation rate for the month of November in the Euro Area was at 1%, which is far away from the target. Hence, the new ECB head Christine Lagarde is unlikely to make any change to the rate. However, the focus of attention needs to be at the ECB Press Conference following the rate announcement and the monetary policy statement. In her speech, Mrs. Lagarde may share some important insights into the state of the European economy and the quantitative ease policy being implemented through the bond purchase program. If her report brings positive prospects, that will support the euro.
- If the ECB Press Conference provides a positive economic outlook, it will support EUR;
- If the ECB Press Conference provides a negative economic outlook, it will create pressure on EUR.
Quadruple witching is gone and now there are no reasons for the market to hinder. From banks statements and economic data to gas storage reading and Fed’s Powell speech – get ready for active trading.
The United States will release MoM Retail Sales data on September 16, 15:30 GMT+3.
Commodities (iron ore, oil) and commodity-linked currencies (AUD, CAD) surged. West Texas Intermediate has reached $75 a barrel, while Brent rose to the highest mark since October 2018.
Although Jerome Powell’s speech sounded hawkish on Wednesday, September 22, markets did not get scared and the main stock indices got bought back…
Turkey’s central bank governor was at a crossroads: to hold interest rates and take a risk to be fired like it was for three governors before him, or to comply with the president, to cut rates, and to risk the market. Let’s find out, how to react to the rate cut.