The US dollar index keeps rounding above the 103.60 historical support level. The buyers have already defended this level for three weeks, highlighting their interest in the greenback. Thus, buying USD looks less risky right now.
Will the FOMC lift the USD?
What will happen?
The US Fed provides a Statement and a Press Conference on April 28, at 21:00 MT time.
FOMC is the primary source of potentially impactful information about the economic outlook in the US. Lately, we have become accustomed to the fact that the interest rate will be kept steady in the nearest future – that’s why it’s not what observers will be looking at. Rather, the details of the Fed’s message about the dynamics of the US economic recovery will be the key element. If they are encouraging, the USD is likely to rise. Otherwise, if there are doubts about the steadiness of the economic recovery process in the US, the US dollar may lose value.
How to trade the Fed’s announcement?
If optimistic projections of a steady economic recovery ahead in the US are confirmed, the USD will likely gain value on traders’ risk-on moods. A more pessimistic outlook would press on the US dollar.
- Optimistic/hawkish Fed projections make the USD rise;
- Modest/dovish Fed report presses on the USD.
Instruments to trade: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CAD
On the H4 timeframe, the US dollar index has formed a bullish falling wedge. At the beginning of the trading session, the price is testing the upper border of this wedge. Thus, in case of a higher-than-expected Core PCE Price Index m/m, the US dollar will skyrocket against other currencies.
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This week may be the most important since the year started as the Fed assess the economic outlook and the US presents fresh NFP readings.
S&P Global, a private banking company, will release a monthly change in British Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on January 24, 11:30 GMT+2. The index is a leading indicator of economic health as businesses react quickly to market conditions, and purchasing managers hold the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy.
The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) m/m on January 12 at 15:30 GMT+2. The index measures a change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.