Will the NFP be strong this time?

What will happen?

Non-Farm Payrolls are published on June 4, 15:30 GMT+3.

Last time, the market was rather unimpressed with the US economic data. While the Average Hourly Earnings of 0.7% were significantly higher than the expected 0.0%, the other two hey indicators underperformed: the Non-Farm Employment Change was 266K against the forecast of 990K, and Unemployment Rate of 6.1% turned out to be notably higher than the expectation of 5.8%.

How to trade the NFP data?

As a result of the market disappointment in the above case, the USD dropped upon the release of the data and continued into fluctuation later on. Therefore, although most observers should be now prepared for rather weak data in the coming release, there is always room for a surprise – in whichever direction it drives the USD.

• If actual figures exceed expectations, the USD may rise;
• If data is weak, the USD may drop.

Instruments to trade: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CAD

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Gaspar Markosyan

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