The main market tendency today is that the US dollar is rising against its major peers and riskier assets such as stocks and oil are plummeting.
Will the NFP push the USD again?
Non-Farm Payrolls data will be released on Thursday at 15:30 MT time.
Instruments to trade: EUR/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD
The last release of the NFP was far greater than what one could have thought. 2.5mln jobs were created against a loss of 8mln expected by the market. Fundamentally, it is hilarious. For a trader, though, it is a conundrum. As the last release was unexpectedly high, the question is: will the American labor market be able to hold on to this tremendous resilience in the coming release? Because if it doesn’t, we are in for another blow to the USD. The preliminary data shows, though, that the workforce is being added into the market, so there is a high probability that the NFP will bring positive figures beating the expectations.
- If the data is better-than-thought, the USD will rise.
- Otherwise, it will fall.
The European Central Bank will publish the monetary policy statement with the interest rate decision on January 21, at 14:45 MT time.
Joe Biden is going to unveil a Covid-19 relief package of about $2 trillion. After this announcement, the 10-year Treasury yield rose, adding support for the USD.
The US dollar’s weakness offered a boost to emerging-market currencies and oil.