The US dollar index keeps rounding above the 103.60 historical support level. The buyers have already defended this level for three weeks, highlighting their interest in the greenback. Thus, buying USD looks less risky right now.
Will the quarterly US GDP impress the market?
What will happen?
US Advance quarterly GDP is announced on April 29 at 15:30 MT time.
Gross Domestic Product is the primary indicator of economic expansion. If it is steadily increasing, it confirms that the economic dynamics in the country are healthy and that the industry and services are adding momentum to produce more goods and services. Consequently, it translates into more labor force, higher financial circulation, and stronger demand for the national currency: inside and outside the country.
How to trade the quarterly GDP?
If the quarterly GDP is greater than the forecasts and shows expansion dynamics, observers may take that as an encouragement to go risk-on in their short-term and mid-term operations – that would eventually push the US dollar. Otherwise, the national currency may become weaker.
- If the quarterly GDP is greater than expected, the US may rise;
- Otherwise, the USD may drop.
Instruments to trade: USD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD
On the H4 timeframe, the US dollar index has formed a bullish falling wedge. At the beginning of the trading session, the price is testing the upper border of this wedge. Thus, in case of a higher-than-expected Core PCE Price Index m/m, the US dollar will skyrocket against other currencies.
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This week may be the most important since the year started as the Fed assess the economic outlook and the US presents fresh NFP readings.
S&P Global, a private banking company, will release a monthly change in British Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on January 24, 11:30 GMT+2. The index is a leading indicator of economic health as businesses react quickly to market conditions, and purchasing managers hold the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy.
The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) m/m on January 12 at 15:30 GMT+2. The index measures a change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.