The US dollar index keeps rounding above the 103.60 historical support level. The buyers have already defended this level for three weeks, highlighting their interest in the greenback. Thus, buying USD looks less risky right now.
Will the RBA support the AUD?
What will happen?
The RBA will announce its Cash Rate on April 6, at 07:30 MT time.
During the last session of the RBA, the Cash Rate was held steady at a record low of 0.1%. The Bank explained it was committed to keeping the rate at that mark until and unless the economy recovers to the inflation rate’s target range of 2 to 3%. The latter is far away from the current dynamic and is not expected to be reached earlier than 2024.
How to trade the RBA Cash Rate announcement?
Because of the above, no change to the rate is expected. In the meantime, what we will be looking for is the assessment of domestic economic dynamics and resulting actions from the RBA. The latter is ready to step in and adjust its bond purchases according to the situation. If the economic indicators are good, and no intervention from the RBA is required, it may be taken as an optimistic impulse that may boost the AUD.
- Optimistic/hawkish RBA tones may push the AUD;
- Weak outlook/dovish notes will press the AUD.
Instruments to trade: AUD/USD, AUD/CHF, AUD/CAD, AUD/JPY
On the H4 timeframe, the US dollar index has formed a bullish falling wedge. At the beginning of the trading session, the price is testing the upper border of this wedge. Thus, in case of a higher-than-expected Core PCE Price Index m/m, the US dollar will skyrocket against other currencies.
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This week may be the most important since the year started as the Fed assess the economic outlook and the US presents fresh NFP readings.
S&P Global, a private banking company, will release a monthly change in British Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on January 24, 11:30 GMT+2. The index is a leading indicator of economic health as businesses react quickly to market conditions, and purchasing managers hold the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy.
The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) m/m on January 12 at 15:30 GMT+2. The index measures a change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.