The main market tendency today is that the US dollar is rising against its major peers and riskier assets such as stocks and oil are plummeting.
Will the RBNZ support the kiwi?
The New Zealand interest rate is announced on Wednesday at 05:00 MT time.
Instruments to trade: NZD/USD, AUD/NZD, NZD/CHF, EUR/NZD
The interest rate in New Zealand was reduced to 0.25% in March in response to the virus and has been kept steady at this level since then. As the second wave of the virus hit the country after the lockdowns were lifted, the restrictions had to be imposed once again. That affected the consumer and business activity in view of the cloudy recovery. While the quantitative easing measures have been undertaken, the Bank’s board advised that they don’t rule out a further reduction in the interest rate as the outlook is gloomier than expected and the Bank is running out of instruments to stimulate the economy. That’s why the announcement coming this week is pretty crucial in understanding the course of the RBNZ and the near-term economic future of New Zealand. Positive tones will boost the NZD while a dovish stance will press it to the downside.
- If the RBNZ’s tone is hawkish, the NZD will rise.
- If the RBNZ’s tone is dovish, the NZD will fall.
The European Central Bank will publish the monetary policy statement with the interest rate decision on January 21, at 14:45 MT time.
Joe Biden is going to unveil a Covid-19 relief package of about $2 trillion. After this announcement, the 10-year Treasury yield rose, adding support for the USD.
The US dollar’s weakness offered a boost to emerging-market currencies and oil.