The US dollar index keeps rounding above the 103.60 historical support level. The buyers have already defended this level for three weeks, highlighting their interest in the greenback. Thus, buying USD looks less risky right now.
Will the RBNZ support the kiwi?
The New Zealand interest rate is announced on Wednesday at 05:00 MT time.
Instruments to trade: NZD/USD, AUD/NZD, NZD/CHF, EUR/NZD
The interest rate in New Zealand was reduced to 0.25% in March in response to the virus and has been kept steady at this level since then. As the second wave of the virus hit the country after the lockdowns were lifted, the restrictions had to be imposed once again. That affected the consumer and business activity in view of the cloudy recovery. While the quantitative easing measures have been undertaken, the Bank’s board advised that they don’t rule out a further reduction in the interest rate as the outlook is gloomier than expected and the Bank is running out of instruments to stimulate the economy. That’s why the announcement coming this week is pretty crucial in understanding the course of the RBNZ and the near-term economic future of New Zealand. Positive tones will boost the NZD while a dovish stance will press it to the downside.
- If the RBNZ’s tone is hawkish, the NZD will rise.
- If the RBNZ’s tone is dovish, the NZD will fall.
On the H4 timeframe, the US dollar index has formed a bullish falling wedge. At the beginning of the trading session, the price is testing the upper border of this wedge. Thus, in case of a higher-than-expected Core PCE Price Index m/m, the US dollar will skyrocket against other currencies.
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