The British monthly GDP is announced on Friday at 09:00 MT time.
Will the recovering US retail sales boost the USD?
The US retails sales are announced on Tuesday at 15:30 MT time.
Instruments to trade: EUR/USD; USD/JPY; GBP/USD; USD/CAD
April was a disastrous month for the US sales which sank more than 16%. The effect was even more hurtful as it was far worse than the expected -12%. May, however, is supposed to reflect the start of recovery. As unnoticeable as it usually goes, this indicator may be crucial this time in defining the stock market’s mood as it’s been on a bullish trend alarmingly against raw data. On the other hand, if the sales indeed show that the economy is confidently picking up, that will definitely boost the USD and launch the stock market into another bullish wave. The expectation is at -10% hence whatever comes higher than this will be taken as good news.
- If the retail sales reflect a confident recovery, the USD will rise.
- If the sales are slow to recover, the USD will fall.
The main market tendency today is that the US dollar is rising against its major peers and riskier assets such as stocks and oil are plummeting.
The US unemployment claims are out on Thursday at 15:30 MT time.
The European Central Bank will publish the monetary policy statement with the interest rate decision on January 21, at 14:45 MT time.
Joe Biden is going to unveil a Covid-19 relief package of about $2 trillion. After this announcement, the 10-year Treasury yield rose, adding support for the USD.
The US dollar’s weakness offered a boost to emerging-market currencies and oil.