The USA will publish unemployment claims on October 22 at 15:30 MT time. How to trade after the release?
Will the USD get stronger on NFP?
Non-Farm Payrolls data will be released on Friday at 15:30 MT time.
Instruments to trade: EUR/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD
It is hard to expect any good news on the coming NFP with almost 25mln people having filed for jobless benefits in the US since March. That doesn’t mean, however, that the market will be necessarily downed by it and the USD will lose value. The previous NFP brought the March unemployment rate to 4.4%, which was a very significant surge and notably higher than the market expectation. Nevertheless, the USD reacted to that in a very moderate manner. That may partly be ascribed to the state of shock that financial observers still were in and which did not ease its grip on the market at that time. This time, there will be already much more data, more plans prepared, and more clarity on the past and present economic disposition in the US. Hence, the effect on the market should be more logically shaped and defined by the nature of the labor market data we are about to receive.
- If the data is better-than-thought, the USD will rise.
- Otherwise, it will fall.
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