The US dollar index keeps rounding above the 103.60 historical support level. The buyers have already defended this level for three weeks, highlighting their interest in the greenback. Thus, buying USD looks less risky right now.
Will the USD get stronger on NFP?
Non-Farm Payrolls data will be released on Friday at 15:30 MT time.
Instruments to trade: EUR/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD
It is hard to expect any good news on the coming NFP with almost 25mln people having filed for jobless benefits in the US since March. That doesn’t mean, however, that the market will be necessarily downed by it and the USD will lose value. The previous NFP brought the March unemployment rate to 4.4%, which was a very significant surge and notably higher than the market expectation. Nevertheless, the USD reacted to that in a very moderate manner. That may partly be ascribed to the state of shock that financial observers still were in and which did not ease its grip on the market at that time. This time, there will be already much more data, more plans prepared, and more clarity on the past and present economic disposition in the US. Hence, the effect on the market should be more logically shaped and defined by the nature of the labor market data we are about to receive.
- If the data is better-than-thought, the USD will rise.
- Otherwise, it will fall.
On the H4 timeframe, the US dollar index has formed a bullish falling wedge. At the beginning of the trading session, the price is testing the upper border of this wedge. Thus, in case of a higher-than-expected Core PCE Price Index m/m, the US dollar will skyrocket against other currencies.
Happy Wednesday, traders! We went through the Internet and found the best news for you, take a look!
This week may be the most important since the year started as the Fed assess the economic outlook and the US presents fresh NFP readings.
S&P Global, a private banking company, will release a monthly change in British Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on January 24, 11:30 GMT+2. The index is a leading indicator of economic health as businesses react quickly to market conditions, and purchasing managers hold the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy.
The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) m/m on January 12 at 15:30 GMT+2. The index measures a change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.