What will happen? The US Q2 Gross Domestic Product will be announced at 15:30 MT time (GMT+3) on Thursday, July 29…
Will the USD get stronger on NFP?
Non-Farm Payrolls data will be released on Friday at 15:30 MT time.
Instruments to trade: EUR/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD
It is hard to expect any good news on the coming NFP with almost 25mln people having filed for jobless benefits in the US since March. That doesn’t mean, however, that the market will be necessarily downed by it and the USD will lose value. The previous NFP brought the March unemployment rate to 4.4%, which was a very significant surge and notably higher than the market expectation. Nevertheless, the USD reacted to that in a very moderate manner. That may partly be ascribed to the state of shock that financial observers still were in and which did not ease its grip on the market at that time. This time, there will be already much more data, more plans prepared, and more clarity on the past and present economic disposition in the US. Hence, the effect on the market should be more logically shaped and defined by the nature of the labor market data we are about to receive.
- If the data is better-than-thought, the USD will rise.
- Otherwise, it will fall.
Today the Fed will make a policy statement at 21:00 GMT+3. This event will affect all the currency pairs with the USD and thus almost the all Forex market!
The overall market sentiment is risk-on. The S&P 500 index (US 500) is getting close to the all-time high. Oil is recovering quickly from its recent losses.
What events to follow and how to trade during the week of July 2-6?
EUR/USD retraced to 1.1870 after breaking out this level. It should be just a natural sell-off ahead of the further rally up.
The Fed held a much-awaited meeting yesterday. The bank hasn’t made any policy changes. As a result, the USD weakened and EUR/USD rocketed. Jump in to know all the latest news!