The US dollar index keeps rounding above the 103.60 historical support level. The buyers have already defended this level for three weeks, highlighting their interest in the greenback. Thus, buying USD looks less risky right now.
Will USD Stop Falling Today? Market Wrap
- The US dollar is heading to close the seventh day in the red as it remains under selling pressure. The US data at 15:30 GMT+3 (jobless claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index) may support the greenback if it's strong.
- BTC/USD rose to a record high, exceeding the record high of $66,000 amid the optimism over the strong debut by the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF.
- Oil has been moving near a seven-year high after an unexpected draw in US crude stockpiles and a huge drop in oil supplies.
- Tesla reported third-quarter earnings results after the market closed, which beat the market expectations. The report marked the 9th quarter of profit in a row! IBM reported worse-than-expected Q3 earnings. Keep an eye on the US stocks after 16:30 GMT+3.
- Turkey’s central bank is expected to cut rates again today. It may press down the Turkish lira even more. Watch USD/TRY today. If the breakout above 9.35 occurs, the pair may jump to 9.50.
EUR/USD keeps attacking the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.1660. If it manages to break this significant resistance level, the doors to the 50% Fibo level of 1.1700 will be open. The US data at 15:30 GMT+3 (jobless claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index) can affect the pair and set the new track. While tomorrow, the EU PMI reports in the morning will be the main driver of the EUR/USD pair. Support levels are the low of October 20 at 1.1625 and the 23.6% Fibo level of 1.1610.
Gold has gained from the weak greenback. It is edging higher inside the ascending channel. The resistance zone of $1795-1800 looks strong as there are the 100- and 200-day MAs and the psychological level of $1800. It will be hard to break it on the first try. Thus, we might expect a reverse down. Support levels are the 50-day MA at $1780 and $1765.
USD/JPY moves sideways between 114.00 and 114.50. Now, it has approached the bottom of the channel, which it may fail to cross and reverse up. On the flip side, if the pair closes below 114.00, it may drop to the low of October 13 at 113.20.
On the H4 timeframe, the US dollar index has formed a bullish falling wedge. At the beginning of the trading session, the price is testing the upper border of this wedge. Thus, in case of a higher-than-expected Core PCE Price Index m/m, the US dollar will skyrocket against other currencies.
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This week may be the most important since the year started as the Fed assess the economic outlook and the US presents fresh NFP readings.
S&P Global, a private banking company, will release a monthly change in British Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on January 24, 11:30 GMT+2. The index is a leading indicator of economic health as businesses react quickly to market conditions, and purchasing managers hold the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy.
The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) m/m on January 12 at 15:30 GMT+2. The index measures a change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.