This week started with the talk of the United States banning Russian oil exports, so XBR/USD saw $130 a barrel. Then the ban became reality. What does it really mean for the market?
WTI oil: rise and shine?
WTI oil price recently broke the resistance of $45 and came to trade below $47. It definitely gives an optimistic impression. If things stay as they are, it will likely come to $50 and above. What stands behind this upbeat performance?
OPEC+ has been having a number of difficult talks between the member countries to set the oil supply plans for the mid-term future. The process was “tiring” and “excruciating” as the Saudi Energy Minister commented, but the deal was finally reached. Output cuts will not be extended next year – instead, they will be eased. 500,000 barrels will be added to the daily oil production of the cartel. After that, in a month’s time, a new meeting will be held to decide on the coming month’s production plan, and the same will be happening each month.
So in the short-term, we have an emotional reaction of the oil market that liked to hear that OPEC+ considers current demand good enough to allow cut easing. In the long-term, however, the way the recent meetings have been going reveals an increasing disparity and disagreements between the cartel member countries. Will it lead to a split? It may. Time will tell.
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is scheduled to meet on January 4.
For a long time, traders considered American Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) the most important release in the market. However, the situation has changed. Now US CPI moves financial markets.
The US Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) on May 27 at 15:30 GMT+3.
The United States will publish the Preliminary GDP on Thursday, May 26, at 15:30 GMT+3.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will publish a monetary policy report and make an update on the interest rate on May 25, at 05:00 GMT+3.