Fear & Greed Index or How to Beat Crowd

Fear & Greed Index or How to Beat Crowd

2021-09-16 • Updated

And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful.” — Warren Buffett

What is Fear & Greed index about?                                    

In this article, we present an instrument that indicates whether global investors’ mood is either greedy or fearful.

The Fear and Greed Index uses a scale of 0 to 100. The higher the indicator’s value the greedier investors are. On the contrary, low readings of the index mean that investors got cautious or, in other words, market sentiment has become risk-off.  The value of 50 means investors are neutral. Historical data says that on March 23, 2020, on the pick of the COVID-19 crisis the Fear and Greed index dropped as low as to 12. If you look at the charts of that period, you will see the bullish spike in such safe-haven assets as the Japanese yen (USD/JPY dropped to a multiyear low). So you can see how the information provided by the Fear and Greed Index can help traders to make the right decisions during periods of high market volatility.

Picture1.png

. Source: https://money.cnn.com/

How is Fear & Greed index counted?

The Fear & Greed index is based on seven different indicators. CNN tracks the difference from its normal value and gives equal weight to each indicator in the final reading.

1. Stock Price Momentum. The S&P 500 versus its 125-day moving average. During the COVID-19 bump on March 23 S&P500 index deviated from the 125-day moving average by 900 points, which was the biggest difference since 2008.

US500Daily.png

2. Stock Price Strength. The number of stocks hitting 52-week highs and lows on the New York Stock Exchange. The bigger number of undervalued or overvalued stocks shows either stock market is oversold or overbought respectively.

3. Stock Price Breadth. The volume of trading in stocks on the rise versus those declining. Usually, the volume rises as the price reaches its top or bottom levels. It happens because whales are gaining or dumping their positions respectively. Market breadth can be used to gauge how widespread bullish or bearish sentiment is.

4. Put and Call Options. The ratio of bullish call options trades versus bearish put options trades. Options give the right not the obligation to buy (call option) or sell (bull option) an asset. Therefore, more trades of puts over calls could indicate investors are feeling pessimistic about share prices in the future, and vice versa bigger number of calls over puts can tell about investors’ optimistic sentiment towards the stock market future.

5. Junk Bond Demand. The spread between yields on investment-grade bonds and junk or high-yield bonds. Bond prices move in the opposite direction of yields. During periods of high turbulence, investors prefer to save money, as a result, investment-grade bonds become more expensive while yields decline. Visa versa, crises make investors get rid of riskier assets what makes junk bonds’ prices drop as yields grow.

Picture2.png

6. Market Volatility. The Cboe Volatility Index, also known as VIX, is designed to track investor expectations for volatility during the next 30. Rising expectations for stock market future turbulence could be a perfect signal of upcoming correction.

Picture3.png

7. Safe Haven Demand. The difference in returns from stocks versus Treasures. Investors' preferences towards riskier markets versus safer assets indicate the market’s sentiment.

How to use Fear & Greed index?

Fear & Greed index is the best option to use during days of the highest volatility on the market. Use it to determine when to enter the market if you trade S&P 500. When the index gets under 20 during huge it's time to think about opening long positions and visa versa. In addition, the index may tell you the general sentiment of the market risk-on or risk-off. This will help you understand which assets welcome long (buy) trades and which are a better choice for selling.

However, making decisions relying only on Fear & Greed index will be a huge mistake. Extreme bullishness could be caused by the economy’s rising wealth and vice versa, so it is highly important to follow fundamental news as well.

START TRADING WITH THIS INDICATOR

Similar

Frequently asked questions

  • How to open an FBS account?

    Click the ‘Open account’ button on our website and proceed to the Personal Area. Before you can start trading, pass a profile verification. Confirm your email and phone number, get your ID verified. This procedure guarantees the safety of your funds and identity. Once you are done with all the checks, go to the preferred trading platform, and start trading. 

  • How to withdraw the money you earned with FBS?

    The procedure is very straightforward.  Go to the Withdrawal page on the website or the Finances section of the FBS Personal Area and access Withdrawal. You can get the earned money via the same payment system that you used for depositing. In case you funded the account via various methods, withdraw your profit via the same methods in the ratio according to the deposited sums.

  • How to start trading?

    If you are 18+ years old, you can join FBS and begin your FX journey. To trade, you need a brokerage account and sufficient knowledge on how assets behave in the financial markets. Start with studying the basics with our free educational materials and creating an FBS account. You may want to test the environment with virtual money with a Demo account. Once you are ready, enter the real market and trade to succeed.

  • How to activate Level Up Bonus?

    Open Level Up Bonus account in web or mobile version of FBS Personal Area and get up to $140 free to your account.

Deposit with your local payment systems

Be on top of your game

Data collection notice

FBS maintains a record of your data to run this website. By pressing the “Accept” button, you agree to our Privacy policy.

Callback

A manager will call you shortly.

Change number

Your request is accepted.

A manager will call you shortly.

Next callback request for this phone number
will be available in

If you have an urgent issue please contact us via
Live chat

Internal error. Please try again later

Don’t waste your time – keep track of how NFP affects the US dollar and profit!

Beginner Forex book

Beginner Forex book will guide you through the world of trading.

Beginner Forex book

The most important things to start trading
Enter your e-mail, and we will send you a free Beginner Forex book

Thank you!

We've emailed a special link to your e-mail.
Click the link to confirm your address and get Beginner Forex book for free.

You are using an older version of your browser.

Update it to the latest version or try another one for a safer, more comfortable and productive trading experience.

Safari Chrome Firefox Opera