On December the 3rd Canada reported a 6% unemployment rate, while the expectations were at a 6.6% level. Less than expected unemployment rate is always hawkish news for the national currency.
Trading plan for April 20
Geopolitical issues eased. This supported the US dollar, but still, it didn’t manage to rise against all other currencies.
The most interesting pair to consider is the US dollar/the Canadian dollar. The greenback is depreciating against the loonie. Yesterday the USD/CAD pair broke the resistance at 1.2620 where the 200-day MA lies but did not remain there and fell. On Friday, a lot of important data for the Canadian dollar will be released. The most significant is CPI and core retail sales. The forecast is weak. So if actual figures are encouraging too, the USD/CAD pair will have chances to go up. Investors may also remember the recent comments of the Bank of Canada. The central bank kept the interest rate steady and announced a more cautious approach to the economy. If USD/CAD gets above the 200-day MA, it will move further to the trend line that will be the resistance. A break of the line will pull the pair to the next resistance level at 1.27. On the contrary, if the pair closes below 1.2620 on Thursday, we can anticipate the downward movement to the support at 1.2540. A further fall of USD/CAD may be encouraged by the meeting of the OPEC and its allies. It seems that oil producers aim to make oil prices go up. As you know, the increase of the oil market supports the surge of the Canadian dollar and is negative for USD/CAD.
Another commodity currency that should be taken into consideration is the New Zealand dollar. Although the New Zealand inflation data was quite positive, the kiwi is falling. As no important data for the New Zealand will be released this week, the New Zealand dollar/ US dollar pair may move down to the support at 0.7280 where the 50-day Moving Average lies.
Eased geopolitical tensions caused the decline of such safe haven as the Japanese yen. There will be no important data either for the US dollar or the yen until next week. The strengthening dollar and eased conflicts are pulling the USD/JPY pair to the resistance at 107.50.
Thank you for your attention!
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