For a long time, traders considered American Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) the most important release in the market. However, the situation has changed. Now US CPI moves financial markets.
Trading plan for February 12
The day will be highlighted by two important speeches by the heads of the central banks. At first, the BOE president Mark Carney will make his speech at 15:00 MT time. His comments may provide volatility to the GBP amid the Brexit uncertainties. Let’s not forget about Brexit. Today, Theresa May will be making a statement in parliament, updating lawmakers on the renegotiations of the current Brexit deal with the EU. May's statement later comes a day earlier than expected, as the Brexit debate only continues on Thursday.
Later, at 19:45 MT time, the Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to make some comments regarding the current economic outlook and the monetary policy by the Fed. Keep an eye on EUR/USD.
Now let’s look at the technical side.
On the daily chart of EUR/USD, we see that the pair is moving within the downtrend, as confirmed by Parabolic SAR. The EUR failed to get positive momentum yesterday, as the USD got stronger. Now let’s look at the levels for the pair closer on the H4 chart. We see, that the EUR is testing the strong support at 1.1273. If the Fed chair provides supportive comments for the USD, the pair may fall even further to the next support at 1.1227. Otherwise, it will stick above the resistance at 1.1283. The next resistance for the pair lies at 1.1328
Now let’s look at the daily chart of GBP/USD. The pair is also moving within the downtrend and has already fallen below the 100-day MA. The negative situation around Brexit affects the British pound heavily and pulls it down. On the H4, the pair is targeting the support at 1.2825. The next support is placed at 1.2777. If the BOE governor supports the GBP, the pair will rise to the resistance at 1.2870. The next resistance for the pair is situated at 1.2916.RSI is placed close to the oversold zone. If it leaves this zone, it may signal an opportunity to buy.
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