For a long time, traders considered American Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) the most important release in the market. However, the situation has changed. Now US CPI moves financial markets.
Trading plan for February 18
We can see that there are no significant trade opportunities from the economic calendar. The US celebrates Washington’s Birthday that is why the Federal Reserve is closed today. The market will be mostly driven by the risk-on sentiment after the positive news on trade negotiations between the US and China.
Let’s consider the key levels for AUD/USD and AUD/NZD.
The Australian dollar shows signs of recovery amid the positive comments on the trade truce. The pair has already tested the 100-day MA, but the trend is still bearish according to the Parabolic SAR. Let’s look at the H4 for more concrete levels. We see that the aussie has risen above the support at 200-day MA at 0.7145 and tested the resistance at 100-day MA at 0.7153. If the market environment continues to be risky, the pair will break the resistance at 0.7153 and move towards the next resistance at 0.7173. Otherwise, if bears take over the market, the break of the support at 0.7145 will be inevitable and pull the aussie to the next support at 0.7113.
Now let’s look at the AUD/NZD. We can see that the upbeat tone of the Reserve bank of New Zealand and dovish comments by the Australian central bank affect the pair’s performance and result in the downward trend. The pair managed to recover slightly on Friday amid the trade optimism and inched higher during today’s early trading hours. But don’t be too bullish on this pair! The release of the monetary policy meeting minutes by the Reserve bank of Australia tomorrow at 2:30 MT may pull the aussie lower. On the H4, the pair has been trading within a range at 1.0367 and 1.0403 since last Thursday. Up to now, it has already risen above the resistance at 1.0403. The successful break will push the pair towards the next resistance at 1.0436. If bulls are weak, the pair will fall towards the lower border of the rectangle at 1.0367. The next support lies at 1.0327.
The higher prices seen today are generally related to the pandemic, that’s no doubt. US consumer prices jumped in October at the fastest pace in three decades putting the Biden administration on the defensive and increasing prospects that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next year. Jerome Powell says Fed will discuss speeding up bond-buying taper at the December meeting. What does it mean for markets?
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