For a long time, traders considered American Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) the most important release in the market. However, the situation has changed. Now US CPI moves financial markets.
Trading plan for February 19
As we can see from the economic calendar, the most significant event today is the release of the average earnings index for Great Britain at 11:30 MT time. According to analysts, the indicator will reach 3.5%. If the actual data is higher, the GBP will rise. As for the Brexit updates, the fresh uncertainties increased worries on reaching a deal before the key date on March 29. According to recent news, seven members of labor opposition party left the party in a protest at its leader Jeremy Corbyn's approach to Brexit and anti-Semitism. More uncertainties will pull the GBP down.
Let’s look at the technical side. On the daily chart of GBP/USD we see that the pair jumped above the 100-day MA and formed a gap up yesterday. Today’s news resulted in mixed trading of the British pound. The trend for the pair remains bearish. Now let’s look at the key levels on the H4 chart. We see that the British pound bounced from the resistance at 1.2935 yesterday and fell to the support at 1.2895, which lies close to the 50 moving average. Up to now, the pair tries to rise again to the 1.2935. If it manages to break this level, the next resistance is placed at 1.2971. If today’s average earnings release disappoints the investors, the pair will fall back to the support at 1.2895. If this level is broken, the next support lies at 1.2872.
Now let’s consider the key levels for gold. Yesterday, the yellow metal continued its bullish rally amid the weaker USD. Up to this moment, gold has been trading on the last April’s levels. On the H4, gold has been testing the resistance at $1,328. If bulls manage to break this level, the next resistance lies at $1,335. However, if we look at RSI, the indicator has already left the overbought zone. This indicator may signal the reversal to the downside. If gold reverses, the first support for it will be at $1,323. The next one is placed at $1,315.
The higher prices seen today are generally related to the pandemic, that’s no doubt. US consumer prices jumped in October at the fastest pace in three decades putting the Biden administration on the defensive and increasing prospects that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next year. Jerome Powell says Fed will discuss speeding up bond-buying taper at the December meeting. What does it mean for markets?
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