On December the 3rd Canada reported a 6% unemployment rate, while the expectations were at a 6.6% level. Less than expected unemployment rate is always hawkish news for the national currency.
Trading plan for February 21
The economic calendar today is full of the events. During the Asian session, the jobs data for Australia was released and the level of employment change came out higher than the expectations. This news supported the Australian dollar in a short term but bulls could not hold their positions. Right after the release, Westpac announced a drop in its forecast for the Reserve bank of Australia policy outlook and Chinese port banned coal imports from the country. As a result, the AUD suffered.
Later, at 10:30 MT and 11:00 MT time there have been several releases for the Eurozone. At 14:30 we anticipate the ECB Monetary policy meeting accounts. It may also provide a chance to trade the EUR today.
At 15:30 MT there will be the release of durable goods orders and core durable goods orders for the United States. According to forecasts, we will see the level of durable goods orders to increase by 1.6%, while the level of core durable goods orders will likely advance by 0.3%. If this is true, the USD will go up.
Also in our watch list, there is the release of the weekly crude oil inventories at 18:00 MT time. We anticipate the number of barrels to increase by 2.9 million. If the actual level is lower, it will boost the oil prices and, therefore, push the Canadian dollar higher.
Also for the Canadian dollar, the Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz is expected to make his speech at 19:35 MT time. His hawkish comments may move the loonie up.
Let’s not forget about the trade negotiations, which continue today in Washington. Positive news on that matter will result in risk-on sentiment and boost risky assets.
Not let’s consider the charts.
Yesterday’s FOMC meeting minutes showed several Fed participants saw further rate hikes appropriate in 2019. As a result, we can see mixed trading around the 1.1343 level. The trend for the EUR is still bearish according to Parabolic SAR. The pair needs to stick above the 1.1343 pivot to confirm the uptrend.
On the H4, the pair has formed the candlesticks with long upper shadows since the beginning of the day. Positive data for France helped the euro to test the 100-period simple moving average, but the pair pulled back on the negative releases for Germany. If bulls get stronger, they will manage to break the 1.1359 level and target the next resistance at 1.1370. The break of this level will pull the pair towards the weekly pivot at 1.1396. On the other hand, if today’s releases make the USD strong, the pair will fall back below the 1.1343 level to the support at 1.1333. The break of this level will move EUR/USD below this level to the support at 1.1323.
Now let’s look at the chart of USD/CAD, We see that the Canadian dollar has strengthened since the last week and managed to fall below the 100-day SMA. However, the trend keeps moving down. Up to this moment, the pair is trading within the uptrend as confirmed by Parabolic SAR.
Let’s look at the H4. Today the pair has got some positive moves to the upside since the beginning of the day, but fallen down, bouncing from the 50-period SMA. Up to now, the loonie is testing the weekly pivot at 1.3179. If the release of the crude oil and comments by the governor Poloz boost the Canadian dollar, the pair will fall below the 1.3179 level. The next support lies at 1.3164. Otherwise, if bulls get stronger, the pair will rise to the resistance at 1.3204. If it manages to break this level, the next resistance to focus on lies at 1.3216.
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