For a long time, traders considered American Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) the most important release in the market. However, the situation has changed. Now US CPI moves financial markets.
Trading plan for February 28
The day will be highlighted by the several important events for the United States. At first, we anticipate the speech by the FOMC member Richard Clarida at 15:00 MT. His comments may provide volatility to the USD. Later, there will be the release of the American advance GDP for the previous quarter. The indicator is forecast to reach 2.2%. If the actual level is higher, this will make the greenback stronger.
On the daily chart, EUR/USD has tested the 50-day MA and 100-day MA near the 1.1390 level on Tuesday, but could not stick near this area yesterday due to the increased risk-off sentiment. The pair fell below the weekly pivot at 1.1375 and started to recover. Parabolic SAR demonstrates an upward movement for the pair here.
On the H4, the pair has continued its attempts to move above the 1.1375 level. If today’s events for the USD disappoint the market, the break of this level will be inevitable and the next resistance will lie at 1.14. Alternatively, if the level of American GDP is higher than expected, the pair will fall to the support at 1.1362. The next support is placed at 1.1335.
Now let’s look at the daily chart of USD/JPY. The pair has been trading sideways since the previous week. Yesterday it managed to rise above the weekly pivot at 110.9 but today’s risk aversion during the Asian trading session amid the failed negotiations between the US and North Korean presidents and the weak manufacturing data for China has pulled it to the support at 110.67. From the technical side, ADX shows that bulls still dominate in the market.
On the H4, if the USD release is positive for the market, the pair will retest the resistance at the weekly pivot at 110.9. The next resistance lies at 111.07. Otherwise, USD/JPY will break the support at 110.67 and target the next one at 110.55.
The higher prices seen today are generally related to the pandemic, that’s no doubt. US consumer prices jumped in October at the fastest pace in three decades putting the Biden administration on the defensive and increasing prospects that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next year. Jerome Powell says Fed will discuss speeding up bond-buying taper at the December meeting. What does it mean for markets?
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